December 2024
The Return of the IRBM: Technical Insights and INF Moratorium Implications of Russia's Oreshnik Missile Launch by Nikita Degtyarev
On 21 November, Russia targeted an industrial enterprise in the city of Dnipro using a new intermediate-range ballistic missile named Oreshnik. This missile system continues Russia’s tradition of adapting ICBM technology for shorter ranges. We may witness the deployment of Russian and NATO intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia (either in limited or large numbers), which will further strategic instability.
November 2024
Long-Range, Short-Sighted: The Implications of Authorising ATACMS Strikes in Russia by Raymond Gough
The United States' (US) recent decision to authorise Ukraine's use of longer-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for strikes within Russian territory is highly unlikely to yield strategic battlefield gains for Kyiv. Instead, the move will heighten tensions with Moscow, complicating prospects for ceasefire negotiations and contributing to broader geopolitical instability.
November 2024
US Election Outcome Unlikely to have Significant Impact on the DPRK’s Nuclear Weapons Programme by Sarah Laderman, Marcy R. Fowler, Grant Christopher (VERTIC), Hailey Wingo (VERTIC)
A February 2024 forecasting workshop examined the potential impact of Trump’s re-election on US-DPRK nuclear negotiations and the DPRK’s nuclear arsenal. This article discusses the forecasts made by the convened experts, concluding that the DPRK is unlikely to meaningfully negotiate or substantially modify its nuclear programme despite US election results.
October 2024
Everything Old is New Again: Evolution of Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine by Nikita Degtyarev
By revisiting official documents on foreign policy and security from the 1990s to the present, we can trace the transformation of Russia's perceptions of the role of nuclear weapons in its defence strategy and the conditions for their use. This analysis divides the evolution of Russia's nuclear doctrine into decades for clarity, exploring how the conditions for nuclear weapon use have changed and what this means for global security.
October 2024
Small Yard, High Fence. Drone Incursion over Pyongyang and Risk of Escalation by Tianran Xu
New signs of perceived escalation on the Korean Peninsula, including alleged South Korean drone incursions, have put North Korea’s military on high alert. This article explores whether Pyongyang is preparing for all-out war with Seoul or if these moves suggest another shift in strategy, raising concerns about conflict escalation.
October 2024
Taiwan's Air and Missile Defence. Part 2: Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 by Tianran Xu
The series on Taiwan’s conventional defence aims to provide a clearer understanding of Taiwan’s defence capabilities and contribute to the discourse on defence and the wider geopolitical issues surrounding Taiwan.
September 2024
Taiwan's Air and Missile Defence. Part 1: Tien Kung-1 and Tien Kung-2 by Tianran Xu
The series on Taiwan’s conventional defence aims to provide a clearer understanding of Taiwan’s defence capabilities and contribute to the discourse on defence and the wider geopolitical issues surrounding Taiwan.
July 2024
Atomic Horizons: Forecasting Nuclear Risks by Andreas Persbo
The article examines the inherent risks of nuclear weapons, emphasizing their growing probability of use over time despite annual low risks. It discusses how individual and national choices can mitigate these risks, the importance of diplomatic efforts and arms control agreements, and the necessity of a long-term perspective in assessing and reducing nuclear threats.
July 2024
Russia’s Nuclear Signalling: Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises and Future Doctrine Changes by Nikita Degtyarev
Amid deteriorating international security, Russia is sending strong nuclear signals. In May and June 2024, Russia with the participation of Belarus conducted two stages of non-strategic nuclear exercises, with a third stage planned. Additionally, Russian officials are considering changes to their nuclear doctrine.
October 2023
What Russia’s CTBT De-Ratification Means for Global Nuclear Risks by ONN Advisory Council
ONN interviewed members of the ONN Advisory Council for their takes on what Russia’s CTBT De-Ratification could mean for nuclear risks and the global nuclear non-proliferation and arms control regime.
