All Posts
October 2024
Small Yard, High Fence. Drone Incursion over Pyongyang and Risk of Escalation by Tianran Xu
New signs of perceived escalation on the Korean Peninsula, including alleged South Korean drone incursions, have put North Korea’s military on high alert. This article explores whether Pyongyang is preparing for all-out war with Seoul or if these moves suggest another shift in strategy, raising concerns about conflict escalation.
October 2024
Taiwan's Air and Missile Defence. Part 2: Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 by Tianran Xu
The series on Taiwan’s conventional defence aims to provide a clearer understanding of Taiwan’s defence capabilities and contribute to the discourse on defence and the wider geopolitical issues surrounding Taiwan.
September 2024
Taiwan's Air and Missile Defence. Part 1: Tien Kung-1 and Tien Kung-2 by Tianran Xu
The series on Taiwan’s conventional defence aims to provide a clearer understanding of Taiwan’s defence capabilities and contribute to the discourse on defence and the wider geopolitical issues surrounding Taiwan.
July 2024
Atomic Horizons: Forecasting Nuclear Risks by Andreas Persbo
The article examines the inherent risks of nuclear weapons, emphasizing their growing probability of use over time despite annual low risks. It discusses how individual and national choices can mitigate these risks, the importance of diplomatic efforts and arms control agreements, and the necessity of a long-term perspective in assessing and reducing nuclear threats.
July 2024
Russia’s Nuclear Signalling: Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises and Future Doctrine Changes by Nikita Degtyarev
Amid deteriorating international security, Russia is sending strong nuclear signals. In May and June 2024, Russia with the participation of Belarus conducted two stages of non-strategic nuclear exercises, with a third stage planned. Additionally, Russian officials are considering changes to their nuclear doctrine.
October 2023
What Russia’s CTBT De-Ratification Means for Global Nuclear Risks by ONN Advisory Council
ONN interviewed members of the ONN Advisory Council for their takes on what Russia’s CTBT De-Ratification could mean for nuclear risks and the global nuclear non-proliferation and arms control regime.
September 2023
Nuclearization of the KPAN: Expansion of the DPRK's Sea-Based Nuclear Capabilities by Tianran Xu
Strategic Delivery Vehicle Development Series
August 2023
Brief on 27 July 2023 Parade of the DPRK by Tianran Xu
To celebrate the 70th "Victory Day" (Korean War armistice) anniversary, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) staged a military parade on 27 July 2023. A total of 11 modern weapon formations participated in the parade, which highlighted the DPRK’s nuclear weapons; among the 11 types of weapons, eight types are nuclear capable or are designed exclusively for nuclear weapon delivery.
April 2023
The DPRK's First Solid-Propellant ICBM Launch by Tianran Xu
The DPRK test launched its first solid-propellant ICBM, the Hwasong-18, on 13 April 2023. Compared with liquid-propellant land-mobile ICBMs of the DPRK, solid-propellant ICBMs are operationally easier to maintain as they have fewer mechanical parts, have a shorter launch preparation time by possibly several hours as they do not need to be fueled before launch, and are more compatible to different road conditions.
February 2023
Brief on the DPRK's 8 February 2023 Parade by Tianran Xu
In comparison to previous military parades, the parade on 8 February put a strong focus on the intercontinental-range nuclear strike force: the parade only displayed a few conventional and short-range nuclear-capable weapon systems, but showcased an unprecedented number of 12 Hwasong-17 ICBMs.
