October 2024
Can Humanity Achieve a Century of Nuclear Peace? Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk by Bridget Williams, Ezra Karger, Andreas Persbo, Kseniia Pirnavskaia, Karim Kamel, Victoria Schmidt, Otto Kuusela, Zach Jacobs, Philip E. Tetlock
While the world has avoided large-scale nuclear war, questions remain about the role of chance
versus policy choices in preventing such events. This study systematically assesses expert
beliefs about the probability of a nuclear catastrophe by 2045, the centenary of the bombings of
Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
August 2024
DPRK Nuclear Weapons Development: Literature Review by Sarah Laderman, Elin Bergner, Marcy R. Fowler
There exists no recent comprehensive literature review related to the DPRK’s nuclear weapons development capabilities and associated strategy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by compiling and summarising all major published analyses released since 2017.
June 2024
Strengthening Nuclear Test Ban Monitoring and Verification: The Role of Commercial Satellite Imagery by Jaewoo Shin, Max Richard, Sarah Laderman, Marcy R. Fowler
This report is an outcome of a two-part project titled "Strengthening nuclear test ban monitoring via nongovernmental satellite imagery analysis and mechanisms for resolving compliance concerns".
May 2024
Enforcing the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: The Role of Consultation and Clarification by Hugh Chalmers, Hailey Wingo Verification Research, Training and Information Centre (VERTIC)
This report is an outcome of a two-part project titled "Strengthening nuclear test ban monitoring via nongovernmental satellite imagery analysis and mechanisms for resolving compliance concerns".
January 2024
Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - December 2023 by Jaewoo Shin, Tianran Xu, Elin Bergner
Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, based on those perceptions, makes decisions that have direct or indirect implications for nuclear risk.
December 2023
Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - November 2023 by Jaewoo Shin, Tianran Xu, Elin Bergner
Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, based on those perceptions, makes decisions that have direct or indirect implications for nuclear risk.
November 2023
Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - October 2023 by Tianran Xu, Jaewoo Shin, Elin Bergner
Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, based on those perceptions, makes decisions that have direct or indirect implications for nuclear risk.
October 2023
Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - September 2023 by Tianran Xu, Jaewoo Shin, Elin Bergner
Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, based on those perceptions, makes decisions that have direct or indirect implications for nuclear risk.
September 2023
Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - August 2023 by Tianran Xu, Jaewoo Shin, Elin Bergner
Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, based on those perceptions, makes decisions that have direct or indirect implications for nuclear risk.
August 2023
Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - July 2023 by Tianran Xu, Jaewoo Shin, Elin Bergner
Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, based on those perceptions, makes decisions that have direct or indirect implications for nuclear risk.
