Event Horizon - Issue 19
Update for: 22 November - 5 December 2024
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
Kim Jong Un meets Russia defence minister, reaffirms support
Kim Jong Un met Russia's visiting defence minister Andrei Beloussov on 29 November, expressing support for Russia's war on Ukraine. The two sides reportedly reached a consensus on various issues, including strengthening their strategic defence partnership and safeguarding the sovereignty, security and interests of both nations. According to South Korea’s JoongAng Daily, following Beloussov’s visit, Russia invited North Korean troops to participate in its Victory Day parade, scheduled for 9 May 2025. [KCNA, JoongAng Daily]
Pyongyang-Moscow alliance deepens
The alleged deployment of over 10,000 KPA troops to Russia was not mentioned in North Korean reports on Beloussov’s visit. However, on 21 November, the Wall Street Journal reported that a senior North Korean general was wounded in a Ukrainian strike in Russia's Kursk region. [WSJ, EH18]
Satellite imagery analysis estimates that Russia has supplied North Korea with over a million barrels of oil since March 2024, more than double the annual limit set for Pyongyang under United Nations Security Council Resolution 2397. Additionally, Shin Won-sik, South Korea’s national security adviser, stated that Russia had provided surface-to-air missiles to North Korea to reinforce air defences around Pyongyang. [BBC, AP, UNSC2397]
South Korea mum over arms sales to Ukraine
A Ukrainian delegation led by Kyiv's defence minister visited South Korea’s presidential office on 27 November. The two sides exchanged intelligence on military cooperation between Russia and North Korea and discussed joint responses to security threats. However, the following day, South Korea’s defence ministry avoided commenting on whether Seoul would supply arms to Kyiv, stating only that South Korea would "work in solidarity with the international community." [Yonhap, Yonhap]
According to South Korea’s broadcaster SBS, South Korea had rejected Ukraine's request to buy propelling charges for artillery shells and air defence systems in light of Donald Trump’s re-election and concerns over possible violation of South Korea’s Foreign Trade Act. [SBS]
Military activities on the Peninsula
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25-30 November: South Korean air force conducted its large-scale biannual Soaring Eagle exercise, involving approximately 60 warplanes, including F-15K, KF-16 and F-35A fighter jets, as well as early warning and tanker aircraft. To better counter the North Korean missile threat, the air force also began preparations to deploy F-35A jets to various air bases nationwide. The air force currently operates 39 F-35A jets, with 20 additional aircraft set to arrive in the coming years. [Yonhap, Yonhap]
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29 November: South Korea announced the completion of its L-SAM surface-to-air missile system. This domestically developed system will complement the Patriot PAC-3 and THAAD systems to form a multi-layered air defence network. [Yonhap]
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29 November: ten Chinese and Russian military aircraft conducted a joint air patrol over the East Sea/Sea of Japan and waters off the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula. The air fleet included Tu-95 and H-6 bombers, Su-35 and J-16 fighter jets and support aircraft. [Japanese MoD]
Flight route of China-Russia joint air patrol on 29 November. Image: Japanese MoD
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Aftermath of Yoon’s short-lived martial law
On 4 December, opposition parties in South Korea submitted a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol after his abrupt declaration of martial law stunned the country. Following the National Assembly's rejection of the measure, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Admiral Kim Myung-soo, instructed the military to maintain a heightened readiness against potential North Korean threats. As of 5 December, North Korea has not reacted to the political chaos in South Korea. Meanwhile, the fourth ROK-US Nuclear Consultative Group meeting, scheduled to be held in Washington on 4 December, has also been postponed. [Yonhap, Yonhap, Yonhap]
Yoon imposed martial law late on 3 December but lifted it hours later after lawmakers unanimously blocked his surprise move. He claimed that the martial law was enacted to protect the country from "North Korea's communist forces" and to "eliminate anti-state elements." However, it is widely believed that the declaration—South Korea's first imposition of martial law in nearly 50 years—was politically motivated. Yoon has been a lame-duck president since April 2024, when the opposition won a landslide victory in the country’s parliamentary elections. [BBC, NYT]
North Korea to convene key plenary meeting
North Korea will convene the Eleventh Plenary Meeting of the Eighth Central Committee of the WPK in late December. The meeting will "review the execution of the Party and state policies in 2024, confirm the orientation of struggle for 2025 and discuss and decide on a series of important issues arising in achieving the comprehensive development of socialist construction," KCNA said. [KCNA]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
China removes another top PLA officer
Miao Hua, one of the six members of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the highest-ranking body in the PLA’s military command, is under investigation for “serious disciplinary violations.” The official announcement came shortly after the Financial Times (FT), citing US officials, reported on 27 November that China was investigating defence minister Dong Jun. However, during the press conference announcing Miao’s case, a PLA spokesperson dismissed the FT report as “sheer fabrication.” Previously, it was speculated that Miao, who outranks Dong, was implicated in Dong’s case. [FT, Xinhua, AP, Chinese MoD]
Miao, Director of the Political Work Department of the CMC, is the seventh current or former CMC member to fall from grace under Chairman Xi. In late June 2024, China confirmed that two former defence ministers and CMC members, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, had been transferred to prosecuting authorities after being expelled from the CPC. Both Li and Wei were accused of causing “enormous damage to the Party's cause, the development of national defence and the armed forces.” [EH11]
US to deploy HIMARS units to Japan for Taiwan Strait contingency
As part of a broader plan to deal with a Taiwan Strait contingency, US Marine Corps units equipped with High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) would be rapidly deployed to Japan's southwestern Nansei island chain, according to the Kyodo News. HIMARS can launch the newly developed Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), which demonstrated its ability to target moving surface vessels during the Valiant Shield 24 exercise in June 2024. [Kyodo, VOA, Naval News]
The Nansei island chain can block the passage from the East China Sea to the Philippine Sea. Image: Blue Japan
Military activities near Taiwan
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In November, Taiwan's military reported detecting Chinese naval vessels around Taiwan’s main island 187 times. Additionally, it detected 420 Chinese military aircraft, 267 of which crossed the Strait Median Line. [Taiwanese MND, DPP]
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30 November: 12 Chinese military aircraft, including H-6 bombers, J-16 fighter jets and support aircraft, along with two Russian Tu-95 bombers, conducted a joint patrol in the airspace between Japan’s Okinawa’s main island and Miyako Island. In addition, Chinese naval vessels and a Russian diesel submarine have also been spotted in waters near the Miyako Island from 28 November to 4 December. [Japanese MoD, Japanese MoD, Japanese Mod, Japanese MoD, Japanese MoD, Japanese MoD]
Flight route of China-Russia joint air patrol on 30 November. Image: Japanese MoD
US deploys task force in Palawan, donates sea drones to the Philippines
The US has deployed a task force in Palawan, the Philippines, in a move to enhance intelligence gathering for the Second Thomas Shoal/Ren’ai Jiao, disputed by the Philippines and China. In addition, the US has also donated a number of Mantas T-12 unmanned sea drones to improve the Philippine navy’s intelligence capabilities. [SCMP]
Tension between China and the Philippines
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28 November: The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) received videos and photos from fishermen showing a Chinese helicopter hovering over fishing boats operating near the Iroquois Reef/Houteng Reef within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In response, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) stated that it took "necessary control measures" against multiple Philippine vessels that “illegally gathered” near the Reef. [PCG, CCG, China Daily]
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4 December: The CCG released a video claiming that a PCG ship deliberately rammed a CCG vessel near the Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island. In response, the PCG released its own videos showing “aggressive actions” by Chinese vessels, including a CCG vessel ramming a PCG ship. [CCG, CCG, PCG]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Reuters: China may soon conduct wars game near Taiwan
Three Taipei-based security sources told Reuters that China could launch a new war game as early as 7 December, after President Lai Ching-te returns to Taiwan from his state visit to several Pacific nations. PLA winter war games near Taiwan are rare due to harsh weather conditions. However, a winter drill would showcase the PLA’s ability to launch an offensive at any time of the year, one source told Reuters. [Reuters]
New equipment to be delivered to ROC Army
The first batch of 38 out of 108 M1A2T main battle tanks is set to arrive in Taiwan in mid-December, marking the ROC Army’s first new tank acquisition in three decades. Additionally, 1,700 TOW-2B RF anti-tank guided missiles are scheduled for delivery by the end of December. In November, the ROC Army received the first 11 of 29 HIMARS launchers, equipped with GMLRS guided rockets (range over 70 km) and ATACMS missiles (range 300 km). In 2024, the army also placed orders for suicide drones and increased its purchase of Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles. [CNA, Liberty Times, Liberty Times, CNA, Liberty Times]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
Russia attacks Ukraine with Oreshnik IRBM
Following Kyiv’s report that Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Dnipro on 21 November, the White House stated that an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), built on the basis of the RS-26 ICBM, was actually used. In his TV address, Russian President Putin said that the strike was a test of Russia’s new IRBM Oreshnik (Hazel), as a response to Ukraine's use of Western-supplied tactical missiles against targets in Russia's Bryansk and Kursk regions. According to the Kremlin, Russia's Nuclear Risk Reduction Center notified the US about the upcoming launch 30 minutes before the launch. [US DoD, Kremlin, TASS, EH18]
On 28 November, speaking at a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) in Astana, Putin noted that Russia began mass production of the missile and that several Oreshnik missiles are now ready for use. Oreshnik is the first missile of the INF range that Russia officially unveiled after the collapse of the INF treaty. [Kremlin]
US and Russian military chiefs hold rare call
The New York Times reported that Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Q. Brown Jr. held a rare call on 27 November to discuss global security, Ukraine, and missile deployments. According to the report, Gerasimov informed Brown that Russia’s decision to use the Oreshnik IRBM in combat was made before the US lifted restrictions on Ukraine using ATACMS missiles against Russian territory. Gerasimov also reportedly warned about Russian military drills scheduled in the Mediterranean from 1 to 3 December, while Brown raised concerns about North Korean troop involvement. This marked the first dialogue between the two since Brown assumed his role in October 2023. [NYT, CNN]
Russia’s nuclear umbrella covers CSTO members
On 28 November, at the CSTO summit in Astana, Russia's Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu clarified that Russia's nuclear umbrella extends to all members of the CSTO. He stated that this commitment is not new and is affirmed in both the updated and previous versions of Russia's nuclear doctrine under the provisions concerning allies. [TASS, More about Russian nuclear doctrine and its evolution]
Putin: Russia will not allow Ukraine to acquire nuclear weapons
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would use "all means of destruction" if Ukraine acquired nuclear weapons. Speaking at a news conference in Kazakhstan, he criticised discussions about transferring nuclear arms to Kyiv as irresponsible and a violation of international non-proliferation agreements. Putin also doubted Ukraine's ability to develop such weapons independently, suggesting it could only produce a "dirty bomb." [Kremlin]
His warning follows initial reporting by the New York Times, which, citing unnamed officials, claimed that the Biden administration could “return” nuclear weapons to Ukraine. This claim was later corrected to clarify that the Biden administration “could allow Ukraine to re-establish its nuclear arsenal”, which it surrendered after the collapse of the Soviet Union. [NYT]
Trump names Keith Kellogg as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia as initial consultations begin
President-elect Donald Trump has appointed retired Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, tasking him with leading peace negotiations to address the ongoing conflict. Kellogg, a trusted defence adviser, has proposed a strategy to freeze current battle lines and encourage direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow. His plan links US support for Ukraine to Kyiv’s willingness to negotiate while warning Russia that military aid to Ukraine will escalate if Moscow resists cooperation. [Donald Trump, BBC, AFPI]
On 4 December, as reported by Reuters, a Ukrainian delegation led by Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak met with Trump’s team in Washington, marking the first consultations with the new envoy. The talks included Kellogg and also Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for National Security Adviser, though further details remain undisclosed. According to the Wall Street Journal, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance also participated in the discussions. Sources told WSJ that Yermak's visit aims to establish ties with Trump’s aides, with Ukraine signalling its readiness to pursue peace. [Reuters, WSJ]
Russian Defence Minister Belousov visits North Korea
On 29-30 November, Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov visited North Korea, meeting with Kim Jong Un and the country’s military-political leadership. [For more details see the Korean Peninsula section]
Putin signs record military budget for 2025
President Vladimir Putin has signed Russia's three-year budget, with 2025 seeing record defence spending of 13.5 trillion rubles (6.31% of GDP) amounting to 32.3% of the 2025 federal budget. The combined defence and security spending will make up 41% of the federal budget. [Pravo.gov, EH16]
Ukraine war battlefield updates:
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Intelligence reports suggest Russia is preparing an offensive towards Zaporizhzhia, potentially involving up to 130,000 troops. Initially planned with 20-30,000 soldiers, half were redirected to Kursk to counter Ukrainian operations there. [The Economist]
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In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have lost about 40% of the previously gained territory, now controlling roughly 800 of the 1,300 square kilometres captured in August. Reuters sources indicate Russia has deployed 59,000 troops there, alongside 11,000 North Korean soldiers, though most are still in training. [Reuters]
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On 28 November, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack against Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure across the country and prompting emergency power cuts across several regions. [Kyiv Independent]
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On 29 November, President Zelenskyy appointed Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as the new commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, replacing Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk. Drapatyi earned recognition for successfully defending the Kharkiv front and thwarting Russian advances. [Zelenskyy]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
US, Germany announce new aid packages for Ukraine
The White House has announced 725 million USD in aid for Ukraine, including artillery, missiles and air defence systems. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the support aims to strengthen Ukraine before President Biden leaves office. Sullivan also noted plans for additional sanctions on Russia, targeting its financial sector, though details were not provided. [White House]
During an unannounced visit to Kyiv on 2 December, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced 680 million USD in military aid, reaffirming Germany’s commitment to Ukraine. The package includes two IRIS-T surface-to-air missile systems, 10 Leopard 1A5 main battle tanks, 60 infantry fighting vehicles, M84 and M80 armoured vehicles, 6,000 unguided rockets, 500 guided missiles and 4,000 Helsing drones. Scholz stated the equipment would be delivered in December, underscoring that Ukraine can continue to rely on German support. [VOA, Tagesspiegel]
WSJ: Russia behind plot to target planes in Europe
Western officials told the Wall Street Journal that Russia was behind two incendiary devices sent to logistics hubs in Germany and the UK. In July, the devices ignited at DHL hubs in Leipzig and Birmingham, raising concerns over threats to cargo and passenger aircraft. Polish authorities have arrested four suspects and are searching for two more. [WSJ, Polish government, aircargonews]
The incidents have raised concerns about Moscow’s hybrid warfare tactics. On 17 November, two undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea were allegedly severed by a Chinese-flagged bulk carrier that reportedly dragged its anchor across the seabed. Western officials suspect Russian involvement in orchestrating the incident. Swedish and Finnish authorities have opened an investigation, but the vessel remains in international waters and beyond their jurisdiction. [Marine Traffic, Politico]
