Event Horizon: Methodology and Scope
Event Horizon is a news digest focusing on monitoring emerging risks before they become visible crises. It examines developing stories with significant implications for global stability, stories that may breach critical thresholds beyond which escalation may become irreversible.
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Introduction to Event Horizon
The Event Horizon provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic-level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Methodology and Focus
While general conflict monitoring observes potential armed confrontations of any nature, Event Horizon’s approach is more nuanced, focusing more narrowly on variables that could lead to uncontrollable escalation and potentially catastrophic conflict.
Event Horizon’s monitoring framework is two-tiered, distinguishing between military capabilities and polices, especially those enabling mass destruction, and escalation drivers in a defined geographical area. Tracking both levels provides comprehensive monitoring of potential conflict escalation as it unfolds.
1. Military Capabilities and Policies: This tier includes rigorous tracking of elements such as conventional military capabilities and deployments, nuclear arsenals (size, readiness, modernization), nuclear postures (policies and strategies regarding nuclear weapons use), fissile material stockpiles (quantities of weapons-grade materials), and adherence to arms control regimes.
2. Escalation Drivers: This tier focuses on dynamic factors such as ongoing military confrontation, geopolitical tensions (including inter-state disputes and relationships), escalatory rhetoric and signalling (official communications indicative of intention) as well as military and technological developments.
Current Geographical Scope and Priority Areas
Event Horizon identifies and analyses developments that pose strategic risks in the Asia-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions. To serve this purpose, NATO-Russia, the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea have been identified as four conflict hotspots.
Information Sources
Event Horizon compiles and summarises information from a wide range of primary sources, including governmental organisations, public statements, as well as news agencies, to provide stakeholders specialised updates needed for their work in conflict risk reduction.
List of abbreviations commonly used in Event Horizon
| Full Name | Abbreviation / Short Form |
| People’s Republic of China | PRC or China* |
| Communist Party of China | CPC |
| Democratic People’s Republic of Korea | DPRK or North Korea |
| International Atomic Energy Agency | IAEA |
| Korean People’s Army | KPA |
| North Atlantic Treaty Organization | NATO |
| Northern Limit Line | NLL |
| Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe | OSCE |
| People’s Liberation Army | PLA |
| People's Liberation Army Navy | PLAN |
| Republic of Korea | ROK or South Korea |
| South China Sea | SCS |
| Republic of China (Taiwan) | Taiwan* |
| Workers’ Party of Korea | WPK |
| Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant | ZNPP |
*ONN uses "China" and "Taiwan" to refer to the two entities across the Taiwan Strait. ONN uses "Taiwan" with the recognition that People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) have two different official positions regarding the status of Taiwan: China views Taiwan as an inalienable part of China, while Taiwan regards itself as a sovereign and independent state.
