Event Horizon Issue 11
Update for: 27 June - 17 July 2024
The 'Event Horizon' provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
South Korea, US sign nuclear deterrence guidelines
South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense and the US Department of Defense signed the Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Washington DC. In a joint statement, President Biden and President Yoon highlighted that any nuclear attack by North Korea against the South will be “met with a swift, overwhelming and decisive response.” After the signing of the guidelines, President Yoon stated that the US “will assign a special mission to its nuclear assets for the Korean Peninsula both in wartime and peacetime.” [White House, US DoD, Yonhap]
North Korea’s defence ministry denounced the guidelines as a “reckless provocative act” that brings instability to the Peninsula, and warned that the US and South Korea will pay "an unimaginably harsh price" for “further provocative acts.” [KCNA]
China, North Korea commemorate treaty with low-key event
The Chinese embassy in Pyongyang held a reception to mark the 63rd anniversary of the signing of the Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty between the People's Republic of China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, without attendance of high-level North Korean officials. Unlike in previous years, the main party mouthpieces in China and North Korea, namely the People's Daily and the Rodong Sinmun, did not feature any articles commemorating the treaty, although the year 2024 was designated as the China-DPRK Friendship Year to celebrate 75 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries. [Chinese embassy in Pyongyang]
The low-key reception was seen as another sign of cooling relations between China and North Korea in the backdrop of deepening Russia-North Korea ties. [KBS, Yonhap, Oriental Daily News, Event Horizon Issue 9, Event Horizon Issue 10]
Military activities on the Peninsula
-
24-28 June: Buddy Squadron exercise, involving some 30 aircraft including South Korean F-35A and US F-22A stealth fighters, in an eastern region in South Korea. The exercise simulated offensive counter-air operations and neutralising high-priority targets. [Yonhap, PACOM]
-
27-29 June: Freedom Edge, the first trilateral multi-domain exercise between South Korea, Japan and the US. The exercise aims to promote “trilateral interoperability and protect freedom for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, including the Korean Peninsula.” [PACOM]
-
28 June: To dismiss the North Korean claim of a successful flight test on multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, South Korean military released a video clip allegedly showing the North Korean missile, launched on 26 June, disintegrated midair after spiralling out of control. [Yonhap, Event Horizon Issue 10]
-
1 July: North Korea launched what it claimed to be two tactical ballistic missiles armed with a “4.5 ton-class super-large warhead.” The South Korean military again questioned Pyongyang’s claim, saying at least one of the missiles may have flown abnormally before crashing in an uninhabited area near Pyongyang. [KCNA, Yonhap]
-
2 July: Kim Jong Un inspected several defence industry factories that produce electrical components and machine tools. [KCNA]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
South Korea, NATO to enhance cooperation
In order to better support Ukraine, NATO leaders have pledged to enhance defence industrial cooperation with South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand to ramp up arms production. In addition, President Yoon and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have agreed to share information on North Korean weapons used in Russia's war in Ukraine. [Yonhap, Yonhap]
Kim Yo Jong’s warnings
Labeling South Korea's live-fire drills near the inter-Korean border and the Freedom Edge exercise as “suicidal hysteria,” Kim Yo Jong, vice department director of the Central Committee of the WPK and Kim Jong Un’s sister, warned of military actions if the sovereignty of North Korea is violated. In a separate statement, she also said that “the mode of counteraction of the DPRK will inevitably be changed” if activists in South Korea keep spreading leaflets to the North via balloons. Previously, the North has responded to the leafleting activities by sending “trash and manure” carrying balloons over to the South. [KCNA, KCNA, Event Horizon Issue 9, Event Horizon Issue 10]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
China prosecutes two defence ministers
Chinese state media confirmed that two former defence ministers and members of the Central Military Commission, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, had been transferred to prosecuting authorities after being expelled from the Communist Party of China. Allegedly, both Li and Wei “brought enormous damage to the Party's cause, the development of national defence and the armed forces.” Notably, among other offences, Li “severely contaminated the political environment of the equipment sector in the military and the ethics of relevant industries,” while Wei “lost his loyalty.” These offences, if true, would have to some extent impaired the warfighting capabilities of the PLA. [Xinhua, Xinhua]
On 10 July, the Central Military Commission launched a political rectification campaign within the PLA. [CCTV]
China halts nuclear arms talks with US
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson told a regular press conference on 17 July that China decided to halt talks with the US on arms control and non-proliferation in response to US arms sales to Taiwan. The last round of consultations was held in November 2023. [Chinese MFA]
Military activities near Taiwan
-
A Japanese destroyer reportedly approached within Chinese territorial waters off the coast of Zhejiang Province while it was monitoring a PLA live-fire drill on 4 July, triggering protests from Beijing and an investigation into the incident by the Japanese defence ministry. [Kyodo]
-
Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong conducted training in the Western Pacific along with two destroyers and one frigate. In addition, over 100 land-based aircraft flew around Taiwan on 10-11 July to conduct joint training with the carrier fleet. From 9 to 15 July, carrier-based aircraft conducted 380 takeoffs and landings on Shandong. [Japanese MoD, Japanese MoD, Taiwanese MND, CNA]
-
In a rare demonstration of its early warning capabilities, Taiwan military reported that the PLA Rocket Force conducted “multiple waves of test-firing operations” on 13 July in China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. [Taiwan MND]
-
In June, the Taiwan military reported detecting 446 Chinese military aircraft, with 324 aircraft crossing the Strait Median Line, and a constant presence of Chinese naval and coast guard ships near Taiwan. [Taiwanese MND, DPP]
Manila: no plan to invoke mutual defence treaty
Following a serious maritime confrontation between the Philippines and China on 17 June that left seven Philippine navy personnel injured, senior Philippine officials said Manila has no plan to invoke its mutual defence treaty with the US. Armed Forces of the Philippines chief General Remeo Brawner Jr. said that the Philippine forces will defend themselves with “the same level of force” if his troops are involved in another confrontation. [AP, AP, Event Horizon Issue 10]
In addition, a Philippine army spokesperson told media that the US Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system may be withdrawn from the Philippines in September or earlier, if training objectives of the Salaknib 24 joint US-Philippine exercise are considered to be fulfilled. On 12 July, China’s defence spokesperson urged the US and the Philippines to immediately withdraw the MRC system and never deploy it again. [GMA, Xinhua, Event Horizon Issue 6]
US-led exercise to “deter major powers”
The US and 28 partner nations are conducting the world's largest international maritime exercise, Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC), in Hawaii. The exercise, running from 27 June to 2 August, will culminate in the sinking of a retired 40,000-ton amphibious attack ship. The US Pacific Fleet stated that RIMPAC 2024 aimed to contribute to the increased interoperability needed to “deter and defeat aggression by major powers across all domains and levels of conflict.” [US Pacific Fleet, VOA]
On 14 July, Chinese and Russian navies kicked off the Exercise Joint Sea-2024 in south China’s Zhanjiang. Commanders from both navies said the drills would enhance the ability to jointly respond to maritime security threats. [CGTN]
Japan, Philippines sign Reciprocal Access Agreement
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa signed the agreement in Manila. The agreement facilitates troops to enter each other’s territory for the implementation of cooperative activities. [Japanese MFA]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Japan, US to strengthen deterrence
Citing security challenges posed by China, North Korea and Russia, Japan’s 2024 defence white paper emphasised the need to build up air and missile defence capabilities and to expedite the acquisition of various types of land-attack and anti-ship missiles. [2024 Defense of Japan]
Prior to the release of the white paper, Japan’s defence ministry released footage of the launch of a hypersonic missile designed to protect its southwestern islands that are situated near Taiwan. The Block I version of this hypersonic missile is scheduled to be deployed in 2026. [Japanese MoD, DefenseNews, ONN]
In addition, the US Air Force will deploy 36 F-15EX fighter jets at Kadena Air Base, in Okinawa, Japan, to replace 48 F-15C/D aircraft in the coming years. Kadena is already home to two squadrons of F-22A fifth-generation fighters. [US DoD, Event Horizon Issue 10]
The US Kadena Air Force is situated approximately 400 km northeast of Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which are included within the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the US and Japan, and 600 km northeast of Taiwan. Image: Google Earth
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
NATO summit in Washington
A NATO summit in Washington DC marked the Alliance's 75th anniversary and resulted in the Washington Summit Declaration, which highlighted several key outcomes. The summit introduced the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC) and pledged other long-term security assistance for Ukraine. Although the Alliance did not formally invite Ukraine to join NATO, the declaration noted Ukraine’s "irreversible path" toward NATO membership, with growing interoperability and political integration.
The summit declaration identified Russia as the most significant and direct threat to NATO allies' security, warning of potential attacks on sovereignty and territorial integrity while reaffirming nuclear deterrence as central to NATO's strategy. It condemned China, North Korea and Iran for their support to Russia. Notably, the declaration referred to China as a “decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine.”
The declaration highlighted significant increases in NATO's defence spending. Over two-thirds of allies met their commitment to allocate at least 2% of GDP to defence, with a collective 18% increase in defence expenditure by European allies and Canada in 2024. The declaration underscored the need for collective security initiatives, such as Steadfast Defender 24—NATO's largest military exercise in a generation, held from January to May 2024 across the Trans-Atlantic region. Additionally, it emphasised the NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge to enhance defence industrial cooperation. [NATO]
Orbán’s self-declared peace mission
After Hungary assumed the EU Council presidency on 1 July, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán launched self-declared peace missions to Kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and Washington to hold discussions on the war in Ukraine. In Kyiv, he proposed “to speed up the peace negotiations with a swift ceasefire" to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. Then he met Russian President Putin in Moscow, followed by a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, and concluded his trip in the US by meeting former US President Trump. As an outcome, Orbán briefed EU leaders on the results of the trip and presented Budapest's peace plan. Charles Michel, the head of the European Council, said the rotating presidency gave Orbán no mandate to engage with Russia on the EU’s behalf. Moreover, Members of the European Parliament called for Hungary’s EU voting rights to be stripped. Orbán acknowledged that “he was not negotiating on behalf of anyone”. [Kommersant, NYT, Politico, Politico, Politico, Politico, Politico, Reuters, BBC, Ukrainska Pravda]
Putin attends SCO Summit and meets India's Prime Minister
On 3-4 July, President Putin attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan. The summit accepted Belarus as a new member and adopted the Astana Declaration and several other documents. The Astana Declaration emphasised commitments to the JCPOA, the Protocol to the Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia, the NPT, the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and maintaining space free from weapons. It also highlighted "tectonic shifts in global politics" and urged enhancing the SCO's role in global peace and security. On the sidelines of the summit in Astana, President Putin held a bilateral meeting with Chairman Xi Jinping to discuss bilateral relations, regional issues and the war in Ukraine. [Vedomosti, Kremlin, Kremlin, Izvestiya]
On 5-6 July, President Putin and India's Prime Minister Modi met in Moscow. The two agreed to boost bilateral trade to 100 billion USD a year by 2030 and strengthen defence cooperation. Both leaders emphasised the "urgent necessity" of a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine and stated that they welcome mediation proposals and “good offices” aimed at peaceful conflict resolution. [RBC, AP]
Russia attacks children’s hospital in Ukraine
On 8 July, Russia launched missile attacks across Ukraine, killing 44 people, including four children and two individuals at the Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, denied Russia’s responsibility for the attack. According to Bellingcat’s open-source analysis, the weapon that struck the children’s hospital was a Russian air-launched Kh-101 cruise missile, as opposed to a Western-supplied AIM-120 air-to-air missile that Moscow claimed to be responsible for the strike. The Financial Times reported that the Kh-101 relied on Western-sourced components. Despite sanctions on advanced technologies, Russia has reportedly turned to more commercially available components to build its weapons. [Reuters, Bellingcat, Interfax, Financial Times]
Image: Bellingcat, annotated by ONN. Original video footage: Telegram
On the left and right are 3D models of a Kh-101 land-attack cruise missile and an AIM-120 air-to-air missile, respectively, made by Bellingcat. In the centre is a screenshot from a video depicting the missile that hit the hospital. The Kh-101’s engine compartment, the three control fins at the rear and the two swept wings in the middle closely resemble that of the missile captured in the video.
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
European and US advances in missile defence and deployment
France, Germany, Italy and Poland have agreed to develop ground-launched cruise missiles with a range exceeding 500 km. This initiative, signed by the defence ministers of these countries, aims to address gaps in European arsenals identified during the war in Ukraine. Additionally, a second US Aegis Ashore missile defence site in Europe became operational in northern Poland. Concurrently, the White House announced plans to begin episodic deployments of the Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system, referred to by the White House announcement as “long-range fires,” in Germany in 2026. This will mark the first official deployment of missiles under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in Europe since the Cold War. The INF Treaty banned all of the two nations' nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and missile launchers with ranges of 500–5,500 km. The treaty ended in August 2019 after the US withdrew due to alleged non-compliance by Russia. [Reuters, NATO news, White House, Aviation Week, DW, TASS]
In late June, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans for Russia to produce and potentially deploy intermediate- and shorter-range missiles. He cited this as a response to the US deployment of the MRC during drills in Europe and the Philippines. [Kremlin, Event Horizon Issue 8]
Debate fallout weakens Biden as Trump gains momentum
President Biden’s performance in his first debate with Donald Trump cast doubts within the Democratic Party on the former’s chance to win the 2024 election. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court's ruling that Trump has broad immunity from criminal prosecution for actions he took while in office provides him a significant legal shield. Additionally, a failed assassination attempt on 13 July may have further consolidated Trump’s position. On 16 July, when Trump was officially endorsed as the Republican nominee, he also named 39-year-old Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate. Vance has been opposing US aid for Ukraine, asserting Moscow's threat to global security is overstated. [NYT, Reuters, AP, NYT, ABC]
In a recent interview, Biden said he might consider stepping down from the race if a “medical condition” emerged. [CNBC, CNN]
Subscribe to Event Horizon
