Event Horizon - Issue 16

North Korea blows up inter-Korean roads

Following an announcement by the KPA General Staff regarding plans to “completely separate” North Korean territory from the South, North Korea blew up roads linking the two countries on 15 October. In response, South Korean forces fired warning shots south of the Military Demarcation Line. This severing of roads aligns with Pyongyang’s revised inter-Korean policies, established at the end of 2023, which prioritise hostility over reconciliation. [KCNA, Yonhap, 38north, KCNA]

Hours after the detonations, the government of Gyeonggi Province, which surrounds Seoul, designated 11 inter-Korean border areas as "danger zones" to prevent activists from sending anti-North Korea leaflets across the border. The vice provincial governor explained that the measure was enacted to safeguard the lives and safety of residents in these border areas amid the worsening inter-Korean relations. [Yonhap]

North Korea rebukes the South over ‘’monster missile’’

South Korea revealed its Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile for the first time on its Armed Forces Day on 1 October. The missile, dubbed the “monster” for its size, reportedly has a conventional warhead weighing eight tons and is designed to destroy North Korean underground bunkers. [Yonhap]

South Korea revealed its largest bunker buster missile on 1 October. Image: YTN

Kim Yo Jong, sister of Kim Jong Un, belittled the Hyunmoo-5 as “odd” and “ineffective.” In her rebuke, she also provided the first indications of the yield of North Korean tactical nuclear weapons, saying that the destructive power of a single 600 mm multiple rocket launcher from the North is equivalent to 900 tons of conventional explosives. [KCNA]

Kim Jong Un: no interest to strike the South; not ruling out nukes if attacked

During a speech at the University of National Defence on 8 October, Kim Jong Un stated that he had no interest in South Korea and no intention of invading it, saying that all South Korea needed to do was avoid provoking the North. Kim further added that he would not rule out the use of nuclear weapons if North Korea were to be attacked. [KCNA]

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH

Tension over alleged drone incursion over Pyongyang

• 11 October: North Korea claimed that South Korean drones carrying leaflets were detected in the night skies over Pyongyang on three separate occasions in October. [KCNA] 

• 13 October: The KPA announced that it had ordered its frontline artillery units to be fully prepared to open fire. [KCNA] 

• 14 October: Kim Jong Un convened a consultative meeting on national defence and security, during which he outlined the “direction of immediate military activities.” [KCNA]

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) neither confirmed nor denied Pyongyang’s claim. On 17 October, a JCS spokesperson stated that there was no need for an investigation solely based on the North’s assertion, adding that the alleged drone flight was “something that should be clarified by North Korea.”. [Yonhap, Yonhap]

Pyongyang likely to send regular troops to Ukraine

A Ukrainian military intelligence official told The Washington Post that “several thousand” North Korean infantry soldiers are currently undergoing training in Russia and could be deployed to the frontlines in Ukraine by the end of the year. The official also noted that North Korean officers were already present in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine to study the battlefield. [WP, Kyiv Independent]

Earlier, on 4 October, The Kyiv Post reported that six North Korean officers were killed in a Ukrainian strike on Russian-occupied territory near Donetsk. During a parliamentary session, South Korean defence minister Kim Yong-hyun commented that the report was “likely to be true” and added that the deployment of regular KPA troops to Ukraine was “highly likely.” [Kyiv Post, Yonhap]

DIA: North Korea might be building its first nuclear submarine

According to South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency, North Korea is in the early stages of building a submarine that is larger than existing KPA vessels. The possibility of the submarine being a nuclear-powered one cannot be ruled out at this point. [Yonhap]

New monitoring team to replace UN PoE

During a trilateral meeting at the foreign ministry in Seoul, vice foreign ministers from South Korea, Japan and the US announced the formation of a new multinational team to oversee sanctions enforcement against North Korea. This team will replace the United Nations Panel of Experts (UN PoE), which previously handled these duties. The UN PoE was disbanded in March 2024 following Russia's veto of its annual renewal. In addition to these three countries, eight other nations, namely Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand and the UK will also join the new initiative. [US State Department, EH5, Reuters]

On 14 October, the PLA Eastern Theater Command conducted the Joint Sword-2024B military exercise. The one-day exercise was a response to a speech by Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te during the National Day celebration on 10 October, in which he reiterated that the PRC "has no right to represent Taiwan" and his mission as president was to "resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty." [Chinamil, Presidential Office, Taiwan]

Notably, PLAN aircraft carrier Liaoning entered the West Pacific through the Bashi Channel and operated from waters southeast of Taiwan. Taiwan’s armed forces deployed various assets to monitor the exercise. The US State Department referred to the exercise as “a response with military provocations to a routine annual speech” that was “unwarranted and risks escalation.” [Japanese MoD, Taiwanese MND, Xinhua, MNA, AIT]

Image: CCTV

Shortly after the Joint Sword-2024B exercise, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited a coastal island just across the Taiwan Strait, where the PLA thwarted the last landing attempt of the ROC’s Kuomintang army in 1953. The island has since served as a training base for PLA landing operations. During his inspection, Xi emphasised the importance of enhancing cultural exchanges and promoting integrated development across the Taiwan Strait. [TVBS, UDN, People.cn]

Other PLA activities

• Following the Northern/Interaction-2024 joint exercises in the Sea of Japan in September, Chinese and Russian navies conducted joint patrols in the West Pacific east of Taiwan and south of Japan’s main islands. During the patrols, the vessels fired anti-submarine rockets and surface-to-air missiles. [EH15, TASS, Japanese MoD]

• According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, on 29 September, the PLA Rocket Force and PLA Army long-range multiple rocket launchers conducted live fire drills in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang regions. [MNA]

• In September, Taiwan's military reported detecting Chinese naval vessels around Taiwan 211 times. Additionally, it detected 447 Chinese military aircraft, 322 of which crossed the Strait Median Line. [Taiwanese MND, DPP]

• On 28 September, Chinese air and naval forces carried out “routine” drills near the Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island, an area claimed by both Beijing and Manila. [Xinhua]

WSJ: “nuclear-powered” submarine sinks in China

Citing several US officials, the Wall Street Journal reported that a small submarine sank at the naval shipbuilding yard in Wuhan this past June. The submarine was rumoured to be the first PLAN vessel equipped with a hybrid air-independent propulsion (AIP) system, which uses a small nuclear reactor to charge the batteries. [WSJ, TWZ, QQ.com]

Vietnam protests China over violence against fishermen

In the most violent incident between China and Vietnam in the disputed Paracel Islands in recent years, several Vietnamese fishermen were reportedly severely injured following an assault by two Chinese law enforcement vessels. The Vietnamese foreign ministry issued a protest to China, stating that Vietnam was “extremely concerned, indignant, and resolutely protests the brutal treatment of Chinese law enforcement forces against Vietnamese fishermen and fishing vessels.” [Reuters, Vietnam.vn]

China’s foreign ministry, responding to Reuters, claimed that the Vietnamese fishing boats were illegally fishing without China’s permission and stated that relevant Chinese authorities had taken measures to stop them. The ministry also asserted that “the on-site operations were professional and restrained, and no injuries were found.” [Reuters]

Philippines and partners conduct drills in the SCS

Naval vessels from the Philippines, US, Australia, Japan and — for the first time — New Zealand conducted joint maritime exercises on 28 September in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone to improve the militaries' interoperability. The exercises coincided with the “routine” drills by the Chinese air and naval forces near the Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island. [US Pacific Fleet, Xinhua]

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH

US announces largest aid package to Taiwan

Under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, President Biden announced the largest aid package to date for Taiwan, totalling 567 million USD. According to a US official, the package will "fund training, stockpiles, anti-armor weapons, air defence and multi-domain awareness." In July 2023, the Biden administration authorised the first 345 million USD in defence equipment and services to Taiwan under the same authority. [White House, Defense News, AP]