Event Horizon - Issue 15
Update for: 12-25 September 2024
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
North Korea reveals uranium enrichment facility
On 13 September, North Korean media publicly revealed the country’s uranium enrichment facility for the first time, showing Kim Jong Un inspecting the facility and calling for increased production of weapons-grade uranium. During the visit, Kim announced that a new, more efficient centrifuge had “reached the completion stage” and ordered a further increase in the number of centrifuges to support the country's tactical nuclear weapons programme. [KCNA, 38north, NKnews]
Kim Jong Un inside a uranium enrichment facility. Image: KCNA
In addition, Kim observed the test fire of various weapons, including 600 mm guided multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), land-attack cruise missiles, and a tactical ballistic missile reportedly carrying a 4.5-ton warhead. He also visited a training base for KPA special forces. [KCNA, KCNA, KCNA, EH12]
China-Russia naval drills and Russian airspace violation near Japan
From 11 to 15 September, destroyers and frigates from the Chinese and Russian navies conducted live-fire drills during the Northern/Interaction-2024 joint exercises in the Sea of Japan/East Sea. According to the Chinese defence ministry, the exercise aims to deepen the level of strategic coordination between Chinese and Russian militaries. [Chinese MoD, Chinamil, Japanese MoD, CCTV]
On 23 September, four PLAN vessels participating in the Northern/Interaction-2024 exercise were seen sailing with four Russian navy vessels in waters west of Japan’s Hokkaido Prefecture. On the same day, a Russian anti-submarine patrol aircraft violated Japan’s territorial airspace three times over the waters off Rebun Island, also near Hokkaido. In response, a Japanese fighter jet fired a flare, marking the first time such a measure has been taken. [Japanese MoD, Kyodo, Japanese MoD]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
North Korea commits to deepening ties with Russia
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Security Council Secretary and former defence minister, met with Kim Jong Un on 13 September. During the meeting, Kim Jong Un expressed North Korea's commitment to deepening cooperation with Russia, in line with the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. [KCNA, EH10]
Kim Jong Un allegedly calls China a “long standing enemy”
Multiple North Korean sources told South Korea’s JoongAng Ilbo that Kim Jong Un had recently referred to China as a “long-standing enemy” in internal speeches. According to the newspaper, China has intensified its crackdown on North Korea’s smuggling of drugs, luxury goods, and items with military applications. Additionally, JoongAng Ilbo also reported that North Korean military attachés were absent from receptions celebrating the 79th anniversary of the PLA. Amid possible signs of cooling relations between Pyongyang and Beijing, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson has previously dismissed speculations about strained China-North Korea relations as “unsubstantiated and ill-motivated.” [JoongAng Ilbo, Liberty Times, EH13, EH12, EH11]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
China launches ICBM into Pacific
On 25 September, the PLA Rocket Force launched a DF-31AG intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the high seas in the Pacific Ocean. This marks the first time China has publicly announced an ICBM test in the area since 1980 when it launched two DF-5 ICBMs into the South Pacific. [Xinhua, PLA]
Kyodo News reported that China had notified the US, Australia, and New Zealand in advance about the missile launch and informed the Japanese coast guard of the landing zones for “space debris.” The report may imply that the Philippines was not notified of the launch. [Kyodo]
Presumed path of a Chinese ICBM launched on 25 September. Image: PLA tracker by Duan Dang
Inset: PLA
PLAN carriers underway for joint exercises and training
In addition to the ICBM test, China is conducting military activities simultaneously in the Western Pacific, South China Sea and Yellow Sea. On September 18, a PLAN fleet led by the aircraft carrier Liaoning sailed into the Western Pacific through waters between Taiwan and Japan’s Taketomi Island, conducting joint air-sea training with land-based PLA aircraft near Taiwan. At the same time, the PLA launched multiple rockets from MRLs (multiple rocket launchers) in China’s inland province Gansu. Concurrently, the PLAN’s second carrier, Shandong, carried out pilot training in the South China Sea, while the third carrier, Fujian, was sailing in the Yellow Sea. [Taiwanese MND, Taiwanese MND, Japanese MoD, Japanese MoD, Japanese MoD, China.com.cn, Newsweek]
On 19 September, Taiwan’s defence minister Koo Li-hsiung told reporters that as PLA manoeuvres get larger and larger “it is harder to discern when they might be shifting from training to a large exercise, and from an exercise to war.” [WSJ]
Biden: China testing Quad countries despite domestic challenges
During the fourth in-person Quad summit, held in his hometown of Wilmington, President Biden met with the leaders of Australia, India, and Japan to ensure the continuity of the Quad format beyond his presidency. The leaders discussed a broad range of issues, including tensions in the South and East China Seas, though their joint statement refrained from explicitly naming any countries. [White House]
However, in a hot-mic moment, Biden could be heard saying “China continues to behave aggressively, testing this all across the region, including the South China Sea, the East China Sea… South Asia, and the Taiwan Straits.” He further noted that Chinese leader Xi Jinping was focusing on domestic economic challenges and trying to minimise diplomatic turbulence, while also seeking “diplomatic space to aggressively pursue China’s interests.” [Asashi, VOA]
US strengthens deterrence in Western Pacific
Despite protests from China, the US Army has no immediate plans to withdraw its Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system from the Philippines, where it was deployed for joint exercises earlier this year. In early September, it was also reported that the US expressed interest in deploying the MRC in Japan as part of military exercises. [Reuters, EH14]
In addition, following the Agile Combat Deployment doctrine, designed to respond to the advancement of adversary military capabilities, the US Air Force has reactivated Tinian air base in the Northern Mariana Islands, a former WWII staging base for bomber attacks on mainland Japan. [Newsweek]
Meanwhile, the US Navy issued a strategic guideline, titled Navigation Plan for America’s Warfighting Navy, aimed at enhancing readiness for the possibility of war with China by 2027 and ensuring the US Navy’s long-term advantage. To achieve these objectives, the US Navy will prioritise shipbuilding and adopting advanced technologies to enhance its warfighting capabilities. [USNI]
Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Germany make Taiwan Strait transit
The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) conducted its first-ever Taiwan Strait transit with the destroyer Sazanami on 25 September. On the same day, warships from Australia and New Zealand also sailed through the strait en route to joint exercises in the South China Sea, marking the first time that Australian and New Zealand naval vessels have transited the strait together.[Japan Times, Taiwan News]
Additionally, two German navy vessels, for the first time since 2002, transited the Taiwan Strait on 13 September. In response, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated that China “firmly opposes any acts of provocation carried out under the pretext of freedom of navigation.” [Reuters, German embassy in Manila, Chinese MFA, EH14]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
US, Philippines discuss conflict scenarios that could trigger US intervention
In an interview with CBS News, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro revealed that there were ongoing conversations between Washington and Manila about which scenarios would trigger US involvement in a conflict between the Philippines and China. One such scenario would involve China seizing the Sierra Madre, a landing ship deliberately grounded in 1999 to serve as an outpost affirming the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. [CBS News]
On 24 September, the Philippine Navy reported the largest recorded presence of Chinese ships within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone due to the increase of militia vessels around the Sierra Madre. In total, 251 vessels from the China Coast Guard, PLAN and Chinese maritime militia were logged between 17 to 23 September. [Inquirer]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
Putin announces changes to nuclear doctrine
On 25 September, President Vladimir Putin convened a regular meeting of the Security Council on nuclear deterrence. During the session, he announced forthcoming changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine:
-
The updated doctrine proposes that “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state—with the involvement or support of a nuclear-armed state—will be treated as a joint attack by both nations on the Russian Federation.”
-
Russia will consider employing nuclear arms “upon receiving credible information about a massive launch of aerospace attack weapons crossing Russia’s national borders.” This includes strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic vehicles, and other aerial devices.
-
Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against both Russia and Belarus, emphasising their alliance within the union state framework.
-
The doctrine allows for nuclear retaliation if an adversary uses conventional weapons to create a “critical threat” to Russia's sovereignty.
Ukraine strikes key Russian ammunition depots
Ukraine has struck three Russian munitions depots within four days using domestically produced drones. The main attack on the Toropets ammunition depot in Russia’s Tver region registered a 2.7 magnitude on the Richter scale, equivalent to a mild earthquake, with fires covering a 6 km-wide area. According to the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, the strike caused 30,000 tonnes of munitions to explode, equivalent to 750,000 artillery shells. In addition, Kyiv's forces targeted depots in Oktyabrsky, about 16 kilometres south of Toropets, and Tikhoretsk in the Krasnodar region. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Tikhoretsk depot, one of Russia’s three largest ammunition stockpiles and a critical component of the military’s logistics system, contained at least 2,000 tonnes of munitions, including weapons supplied by North Korea. [The Kyiv Independent, UK Ministry of Defence, Estonian Public Broadcasting, General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces]Another Sarmat missile test fails
A scheduled test of Russia's Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile reportedly failed, with satellite images from 21 September showing significant damage to the silo at the Plesetsk test site. The Sarmat is intended to replace the ageing Soviet-era R-36M2 Voevoda missiles, which were designed and manufactured by Pivdenmash, a Ukrainian state-owned aerospace manufacturer (a Soviet factory before 1991). Despite only one reported successful test launch in April 2022, the Sarmat system was declared combat-ready in 2023. However, several unsuccessful launches raise concerns about the system's readiness and reliability. The urgency of deploying the Sarmat is heightened by Pivdenmash's refusal to service the older Voevoda missiles. [NYT, Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, BBC]
UN adopts Pact for the Future despite Russian pushback
At the UN Summit of the Future, Member States adopted the Pact for the Future, reaffirming, among other issues, a commitment to eliminate nuclear weapons and prevent arms races. The pact expresses growing concern over the threat of nuclear war and reiterates that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” [UN, UN]
While there was broad consensus, Russia distanced itself from the Pact, objecting to provisions on disarmament, among other issues. Along with Belarus, Iran, North Korea, Nicaragua and Syria, Russia proposed an amendment emphasising the importance of intergovernmental decision-making and the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of states, seeking to delay the vote for further discussions. The amendment was overwhelmingly rejected, with 143 votes against. [DW, Tass]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Zelenskyy visits US to present ‘’victory plan’’
On 22 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy began an official visit to the United States, where he is expected to present details of his “victory plan” for Ukraine. While the full specifics of the plan remain undisclosed, media reports suggest it focuses on four key areas:
-
Securing guarantees from Western nations akin to NATO's mutual defence pact;
-
Obtaining modern weaponry;
-
Receiving international financial assistance to rebuild Ukraine's economy;
-
Strengthening Ukraine's negotiating position through continued military operation in Russia’s Kursk region.
In an interview, Zelenskyy warned that if US President Joe Biden rejects the plan, it would prolong the conflict. [President of Ukraine, Times, New Yorker, EH13]
Russia and Iran set to finalise new bilateral agreement
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited North Korea, Syria, and Iran to bolster strategic ties. In Tehran, Shoigu discussed future cooperation with Iranian leaders and announced the finalisation of a new Russia-Iran agreement, expected to be signed during the BRICS summit in October. This agreement would resemble Russia’s recent strategic deal with North Korea and could lead to increased military collaboration. [BBC, Kommersant]
Meanwhile, Western concerns are mounting over potential nuclear cooperation between Russia and Iran. The UK and US have warned that Russia may be sharing “nuclear secrets” with Tehran in exchange for Iranian ballistic missiles. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cautioned that this growing partnership, including alleged exchanges of nuclear and space technology, is destabilising global security. [The Guardian]
Reuters: Russia establishes strike drone project in China
According to European intelligence sources and documents obtained by Reuters, Russia has initiated a programme in China to produce long-range strike drones for use in the war against Ukraine. With support from Chinese specialists, the Russian company IEMZ Kupol has reportedly developed and flight-tested a new strike drone, now ready for mass production at a Chinese factory. A White House spokesperson expressed deep concern over the report, while a National Security Council representative noted that the US was unaware whether the Chinese government had approved the project. [Reuters, Reuters]
