Event Horizon - Issue 14
Update for: 29 August - 11 September 2024
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
North Korea: nuclear arms expansion ongoing
During a speech on 9 September marking the 76th anniversary of North Korea’s founding, Kim Jong Un declared that the country is “perfectly carrying out” its policy of exponentially increasing its nuclear arsenal. He also stated that North Korea is “a responsible nuclear weapons state” with a “strict nuclear command and control system.” On this occasion, Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping also sent greetings to Kim Jong Un. [KCNA, KCNA, KCNA]
Kim Jong Un inspects military sites, reveals huge missile launcher
Kim Jong Un inspected several military units and factories, including a naval shipbuilding factory, a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) factory, a new naval base under construction and an artillery academy. Notably, a TEL with at least 12 axles was showcased to Kim during his inspection. This new vehicle suggests that North Korea may be developing a missile larger than the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, which is carried by an 11-axle TEL. [KCNA, KCNA, KCNA, KCNA, 38north]
North Korea continues ballistic missile production for Russia
Investigators from Conflict Armament Research (CAR) have confirmed that Russia used North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missiles in its attacks against Ukraine in January, February and August 2024. The analysis also revealed that some missiles were manufactured fairly recently, with components produced in 2023 and 2024. [CAR]
Crypto funds over 40% of North Korean WMD programmes
US Deputy Special Representative for North Korea Seth Bailey stated that over 40% of the funding for Pyongyang's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missile development programmes appeared to be sourced through cryptocurrency channels. Bailey made the remarks during a symposium in New York on blocking North Korea's virtual asset laundering. On 6 September, the US, South Korea and Japan also held a working group meeting to discuss preventing North Korean cryptocurrency heists. [Business Korea, US Department of State]
According to blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs, North Korea stole at least 600 million USD in cryptocurrency in 2023, accounting for nearly a third of all funds stolen that year. [TRM Labs]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Significant North Korean provocations possible around US election
During an Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) session, senior South Korean officials stated that they are not ruling out the possibility of North Korea conducting significant provocations before or after the US presidential election. The session also included the first scenario-based discussions on North Korean nuclear threats. The EDSCG is a high-level consultative mechanism established by South Korea and the US in 2016. [Yonhap, KEIA]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
Taiwan’s assessment on PLA capabilities
In its annual assessment on PLA capabilities, Taiwan’s defence ministry highlighted the following trends:
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The PLA Navy and Air Force are building comprehensive combat capabilities to fight wars beyond the first island chain by 2035.
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The PLA Army is focusing on force projection across the sea and urban warfare.
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The PLA Rocket Force is enhancing capabilities to target Taiwan and potential foreign intervention forces, while also expanding its nuclear arsenal.
The report stated that while the PLA is capable of conducting grey zone warfare, joint blockade and joint fire strike operations, it still lacks the necessary capabilities to seize Taiwan’s main island. However, to fully address the "Taiwan question," the PLA is expected to continue strengthening its amphibious forces. [CNA, PTS]
PLA military activities
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In August, Taiwan's military reported detecting Chinese naval vessels around Taiwan 282 times. Additionally, it detected 557 Chinese military aircraft, 399 of which crossed the Strait Median Line. [Taiwan MND, DPP]
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On 31 August, a PLA survey vessel entered Japanese territorial waters near Kagoshima Prefecture, just days after the first-ever intrusion of a Chinese military aircraft into Japanese airspace on 26 August. [Japanese MoD, EH13]
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Taiwan’s military also reported that the PLA conducted joint landing drills near Dacheng Bay, Fujian, approximately 240 km west of Taiwan’s Penghu islands and 300 km west of Taiwan’s main island on 3-4 September. The drills involved amphibious ships, roll-on/roll-off cargo vessels and various types of aircraft. [Taiwan MND]
Sullivan's China trip focuses on managing China-US competition
During his trip to China from 27 to 29 September, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Sullivan emphasised that both countries have a responsibility to “prevent competition from veering into conflict or confrontation.” The Chinese side reiterated that the Taiwan issue is “at the very core of China's core interests” and urged the US to “stop military collusion with Taiwan.” The discussions also covered bilateral topics including military-to-military communications and AI safety and risk. [CMC, US embassy, Chinese MFA, US embassy, White House, Chinese MFA]
Shortly after the meetings, the US ambassador to China stated that the commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific would speak with the commander of the PLA Southern Theatre Command in the coming weeks. [Reuters]
Chinese, Philippine vessels collide in SCS
On 31 August, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ship 9701 collided with a Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel near Sabina Shoal/Xianbin Jiao. Before the incident, the CCG stated that a Philippine helicopter had air-dropped supplies to PCG ship 9701 and demanded that the PCG vessel leave Sabina Shoal/Xianbin Jiao. [PCG, CCG, CCG]
Malaysia rejects China's demand to halt SCS exploration
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that his country will not comply with Beijing's demand to halt oil and gas exploration within its exclusive economic zone. Anwar's remarks followed the leak of a diplomatic note, sent by China’s foreign ministry to the Malaysian embassy in Beijing, demanding an immediate halt to exploration activities off Malaysia's coast. The note was made public by a Philippine media outlet. [ABC, AP, Inquirer]
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said the publication of the diplomatic note was “ill-motivated,” and that China and Malaysia have maintained close communication to address differences and disputes. [Chinese MFA]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
German navy may conduct Taiwan Strait transit
Two German naval vessels—a frigate and a supply ship—en route to the Philippines may soon transit the Taiwan Strait. In 2021, a German warship sailed through the South China Sea for the first time in 20 years but avoided a Taiwan Strait transit. [Spiegel, Reuters, Chinese MFA]
US eyeing mid-range missile deployment in Japan
According to US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth, the US has conveyed to Japan its interest in deploying the Army's Multi-Domain Task Force, equipped with the Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system, in Japan as part of military exercises. If realised, this would mark the second deployment of the MRC in the Indo-Pacific region since April 2024, when the US Army sent the system to the Philippines during Exercise Salaknib 24. China has repeatedly criticised such deployments. [Nikkei, Defense News, EH6, EH11]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
Iran allegedly sends ballistic missiles to Russia
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Iran had sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in support of Moscow’s war efforts. In response to the missile transfer, the US has imposed additional sanctions on Iran's main airline, as well as key individuals, entities and vessels linked to Iran’s missile programme. Additionally, the UK, France and Germany announced the cancellation of bilateral air services agreements with Iran and outlined plans to implement sanctions similar to those imposed by the US. [US DOS, France MFA, OFAC]
Quoting Ukrainian officials, The Times reported on 6 September that Russia has received more than 200 Fath-360 ballistic missiles from Iran. The Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied these claims, while Iran, Russia’s supplier of Shahed-type suicide drones, rejected the allegations, reaffirming its “neutral stance” and commitment to a political resolution. [Iranian MFA, RBC, Washington Post, The Times]
Russian drones breach Romanian and Latvian airspaces
On 7 and 8 September, Latvia and Romania, both NATO members, reported that Russian military drones had violated their airspace. The drone that crashed in Latvia was identified as an Iranian-designed Shahed, carrying explosives likely intended for Ukraine. The Romanian Defence Ministry did not specify the type of drones that entered its territory but confirmed that F-16 fighter jets were deployed in response. NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana described Russia’s drone incursions as "irresponsible and potentially dangerous," though he added that there was no indication of a deliberate attack on NATO member states. [Reuters, Delfi, X]
In response to these incidents, Romanian lawmakers plan to introduce legislation allowing the country to shoot down drones that may violate its airspace during peacetime. Similarly, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that Poland and its neighbouring countries have a "duty" to intercept Russian missiles that might cross into their airspace. However, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg rejected Sikorski’s proposal, warning that such actions could risk NATO "becoming part of the conflict." [Financial Times]
Kuleba removed as Foreign Minister in major government reshuffle
Dmytro Kuleba was removed from his role as Foreign Minister in Ukraine’s most significant government reshuffle since Russia's full-scale invasion. Kuleba's dismissal came as a surprise, given his active efforts to secure diplomatic and military support for Kyiv. Alongside Kuleba, five other senior officials were either removed or reassigned. The Ukrainian government has not issued any public statements regarding the reshuffle. However, during a press conference with Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, President Zelenskyy emphasised that the reshuffle and a "new energy" in various sectors were necessary to strengthen the country. [AP News, Kyiv Independent, Kyiv Independent]
BRICS security representatives meet in Russia
The 14th meeting of BRICS and BRICS+ high representatives responsible for security is taking place from 10 to 12 September in St. Petersburg, Russia. One of the agenda items is the ongoing war in Ukraine, with peace proposals from China and Brazil set for discussion. Notable attendees include China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Serbia’s Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin, Iran’s secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Akbar Ahmadian and India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. President Vladimir Putin met with some of the participants but did not attend the meeting. [Ria News, BRICS Russia, DP, Tass, Kremlin]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
West may permit use of longer range weapons against Russia
The US and the UK may soon permit Ukraine to use longer range weapons, such as the ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, for strikes deep into Russia. During his visit to Kyiv, US State Secretary Antony Blinken discussed this issue with the Ukrainian side. President Zelenskyy also announced plans to urge Biden to ease weapon restrictions during their upcoming meeting in New York at the UN General Assembly. [DW,Militarnyi, Guardian, Bloomberg]
In addition, the US is close to finalising an agreement to provide Ukraine with long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) for F-16 fighter jets. These missiles would enable Ukraine to target sites up to 300 km inside Russia, including at least 30 airbases, some of which have been used to launch attacks against Ukraine. An official announcement is expected this autumn, although the delivery may take several months due to necessary technical preparations [Reuters]
Without Western permission to use their longer range weapons, Ukraine has relied on drones to strike deep into Russia, targeting oil refineries, power plants, airfields and military factories. In one of Ukraine's largest drone attacks, Russian officials claimed to have shot down 144 drones across multiple regions, including areas near the war zone and the Moscow region. [NYT]
Western diplomats urge Kyiv to consider Plan B
As Russia continues to make small gains on the eastern front and Western support for Ukraine shows signs of waning, Western diplomats told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that the US and EU were urging Ukraine to define clearer, more pragmatic objectives to sustain military backing. While it remains uncertain what an alternative strategy might entail, a Ukrainian political scientist told the WSJ that it would be "political suicide" for President Zelenskyy to end the war while Russia still occupies parts of Ukrainian territory. [WSJ, Berliner Zeitung]
Both Russia and Ukraine have expressed openness to peace talks, but with preconditions that seem unacceptable to each other. Several Western countries have called for renewed peace efforts. On 5 September, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer joined these appeals, stating that Vienna, home to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, is ready to host negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. [X]
Russia revising its nuclear doctrine
Russia is revising its nuclear doctrine “based on an analysis of recent conflicts” and Western countries’ actions related to the war in Ukraine, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. He stated that the work was at an advanced stage but did not specify a completion timeline. Previously, President Putin referred to the doctrine as a "living instrument" that could be adjusted in response to global developments. [Tass, Kommersant, EH10, ONN Thought Room]
