Event Horizon - Issue 13
Update for: 8 August - 28 August 2024
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
South Korea and US hold major annual exercise
South Korea and the US conducted the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise from 19 to 29 August. This major annual exercise, based on an all-out war scenario, included command post drills and 48 field training events, an increase from 38 in 2023. The 2024 Ulchi Freedom Shield did not simulate any North Korean nuclear attacks. However, the parallel Ulchi civil defence drill, led by the South Korean government, incorporated such a scenario. [Yonhap, Yonhap, Yonhap]
DIA: North Korea to become Russia’s weapon supply base
South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency reports that Russia has formalised an arrangement with North Korea to establish it as a supply base for weapons and ammunition in preparation for a prolonged war in Ukraine. Since mid-2022, North Korea has reportedly shipped over 13,000 containers to Russia, potentially containing more than six million 152 mm artillery shells, according to the agency. [Yonhap]
This arms supply may have impacted North Korea’s own military capabilities. In early August, North Korea held a delivery ceremony for 250 mobile ballistic missile launchers, intended for deployment with frontline units. These launchers could potentially fire up to 1,000 Hwasong-11Ra/D short-range ballistic missiles, which are believed to be nuclear-capable. However, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service suggests that North Korea may struggle to produce enough missiles for these launchers due to its factories being heavily engaged in manufacturing arms for Russia. [Yonhap, EH12]
North Korea tests suicide drones and guided rockets
On 26 August, Kim Jong Un supervised the flight demonstrations of two types of loitering munitions, commonly known as suicide drones, developed by North Korea. He emphasised the importance of drones in modern warfare and called for advancements in drones incorporating artificial intelligence, as well as the development of various types of unmanned underwater suicide attack craft. [KCNA]
On 27 August, Kim Jong Un oversaw the acceptance test of 240 mm guided rockets for multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), intended to replace the unguided 240 mm MRLs currently used by the Korean People's Army. The 240 mm MRLs have a range sufficient to reach the greater Seoul area. Observers also noted the possibility that these guided MRLs could be supplied to Russia. [KCNA, Yonhap]
North Korea protests China’s telecommunication plans
In a rare protest, North Korea lodged a complaint with the International Telecommunication Union regarding China's plan to install 17 telecommunication facilities near the North Korea-China border. Pyongyang claimed these facilities could cause "serious interference" and criticised Beijing for not seeking "advance coordination." According to Pyongyang, China’s plan violates a bilateral agreement signed in 1981, although the details of the agreement remain unknown. [Kyodo]
Event Horizon has previously reported on possible signs of cooling relations between Pyongyang and Beijing amid growing North Korea-Russia cooperation. In late July, NKnews noted that Chinese representatives were absent from a ceremony marking the 71st anniversary of the Korean War armistice. Commenting on this, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson dismissed speculations about strained China-North Korea relations as unsubstantiated and ill-motivated, emphasising that both North Korea and Russia are friendly neighbours to China. [Chinese MFA, NKnews, EH12]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
North Korea prepares for next spy satellite launch
South Korea's Defense Ministry reported that North Korea is preparing for another spy satellite launch. Following the successful insertion of its first spy satellite into orbit in November 2023, Pyongyang committed to launching three additional spy satellites in 2024. However, the first of these launches, attempted on 27 May 2024, failed. The ministry also stated that North Korea had launched 37 ballistic missiles and 11 cruise missiles so far in 2024. [Yonhap, 38north]
North Korean satellite launch records. Image: ONN/38north
Tensions persist along the DMZ
Two North Korean nationals—a civilian and a staff sergeant—defected to South Korea by crossing the Han River estuary's neutral zone and the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), respectively. These defections occurred after South Korea resumed broadcasting pop songs and news along the DMZ in response to North Korea's release of balloons carrying trash into the South. [Yonhap, Yonhap, EH12]Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
Taiwan conducts annual defence drills
Taiwan's air force and navy conducted their annual precision munition firing drills from August 20 to 23. During these exercises, they launched various missiles—including long-range surface-to-air, anti-ship, air-to-air and land-attack cruise missiles—from multiple platforms. The drills aimed to enhance the military's air defence, sea control and counter-strike capabilities. [MNA]
US nuclear strategy pivots to China
In March 2024, US President Joe Biden approved a revised US nuclear strategy. The updated Nuclear Employment Guidance signals a pivot from focusing on Russia’s nuclear arsenal towards China’s rapid arsenal expansion. [NYT]
Chinese aircraft enters Japan’s airspace
On August 26, a Chinese Y-9 intelligence-gathering aircraft entered Japan's territorial airspace, prompting Japan to scramble fighter jets in response. This marks the first recorded instance of a Chinese military aircraft intruding into Japanese airspace. Earlier, on 4 July, a Japanese destroyer reportedly entered Chinese territorial waters off Zhejiang Province while monitoring a PLA live-fire drill, which led to protests from Beijing. [Japanese MoD, NHK, EH11]
Flight route of the Chinese Y-9 intelligence-gathering aircraft, which stayed approximately two minutes inside Japan’s airspace on 26 August. Image: Japanese MoD
Incidents in the South China Sea
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8 August: Two Chinese fighter jets dropped flares near a Philippine Air Force plane conducting a maritime patrol over the Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island. [Inquirer, National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea]
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19 August: A collision occurred between China Coast Guard (CCG) and Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels near the Sabina Shoal/Xianbin Jiao, causing significant damage to the PCG vessels. The CCG claimed that the PCG vessels intentionally rammed their ships, while the PCG accused the CCG of "unlawful and aggressive manoeuvres." [PCG, Inquirer, CCG, CCG]
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19 and 22 August: Chinese fighter jets dropped flares near planes from the Philippines’ Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) near the Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island and the Pag-asa Island/Zhongye Island, respectively. [National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea, PCG]
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25 August: CCG vessels reportedly fired water cannons at and rammed a PCG vessel near the Sabina Shoal/Xianbin Jiao. The CCG stated that the PCG vessels intentionally rammed their ships. [Inquirer, Inquirer, CCG]
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26 August: The PCG reported that 40 Chinese vessels blocked a supply mission to a PCG vessel on extended patrol near the Sabina Shoal/Xianbin Jiao. [PCG]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
US military open to escorting Philippine vessels in the SCS
Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, stated that the US military is open to consultations about escorting Philippine vessels in the South China Sea. Paparo mentioned this during a news conference in Manila, where he spoke alongside General Romeo Brawner Jr., the chief of the Philippine Armed Forces. [AP]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
Russia launches massive attack on Ukraine
On August 26, Russia conducted its largest attack on Ukraine since the war began, firing 127 missiles and 109 drones. The assault affected 15 regions across the country, damaging the energy sector. In response, the NATO-Ukraine Council convened on 28 August to address the recent Russian airstrikes targeting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. Allies condemned the attacks, reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening Ukraine's defences and pledged to increase military aid. [Reuters, NATO]
Ukraine continues incursion into Kursk Region
Ukraine's military forces in Russia's Kursk region, continuing the incursion that began on 6 August, have advanced up to 30 km into Russian territory, now controlling approximately 1,000 square km according to various estimates. This operation aimed to draw Russian forces away from the Ukrainian front lines, creating a buffer zone. However, Russian troop redeployment has not occurred as quickly or extensively as Ukraine anticipated. Russia has reinforced its positions in Kursk, including with new conscripts and established new military units named "Belgorod," "Kursk," and "Bryansk" to defend the border. Despite Ukraine's incursion, Russian forces have continued their offensive in Donetsk, making gains south of Pokrovsk and in the Toretsk agglomeration.
In Russia, the incursion has triggered a rise in military contract signings in Moscow since the Ukrainian offensive began. Despite this, a poll by a state-owned Russian institution WCIOM indicates a significant drop in Putin's approval ratings, now at 73.6%, down from 77.1%—the lowest since the February 2022 invasion. [EH12, Zelenskiy, Zelenskiy, Kommersant, Meduza, Verstka, Agentstvo]
Modi visits Ukraine
Following his trip to Poland, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Ukraine, marking his first visit to both countries in their history. During his talks with Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Modi expressed his willingness to mediate an end to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Modi’s earlier state visit to Moscow had drawn criticism from Western leaders who disapproved of India's reluctance to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. [DW, Politico, AP News]DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Grossi visits Kursk NPP
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), visited the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) in Russia on 27 August. Grossi's inspection was prompted by a series of reported incidents at the facility amid the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region. On 9 August, Russia informed the IAEA that fragments of downed missiles were found on the plant's territory, particularly near the radioactive waste processing complex. Subsequently, on 22 August, the IAEA was notified by Russian authorities about drone remains discovered within 100 m of the plant's spent fuel storage facility.
During his visit, Grossi stated that he "saw signs of drone attacks," and highlighted the KNPP's vulnerability due to its Soviet-era design, which lacks a containment dome. Grossi reported that the plant was "operating in very close to normal conditions", which, he noted, increases the risk of an accident in case of an impact, due to higher operating temperatures. [Reuters Politico, Rosatom, IAEA, Rosatom, IAEA]
Belarus deploys troops to Ukraine border
In a TV interview, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that he had deployed nearly one-third of Belarus' armed forces to the Ukraine border. This move, he claimed, was in response to Ukraine stationing troops near the Belarusian border. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed Lukashenko’s assertion, urging Belarusian officials "not to make tragic mistakes under Moscow’s pressure" and to withdraw their forces from the border. Ukrainian intelligence reported that Belarus was gathering a large number of troops, including Special Operations Forces, weapons, military equipment and former Wagner mercenaries in the Gomel region near the Ukraine border. [Belarus 24, Ukrainian MFA]
Zelenskyy to present victory plan to Biden in September
On 27 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he would present a “plan for victory” to US President Joe Biden in September. Speaking at the Ukraine 2024 Independence Forum in Kyiv, Zelenskyy noted that the ongoing Kursk incursion is a component of this plan. Other elements include Ukraine's integration into global security infrastructure, diplomatic pressure on Russia to end the war and economic considerations. [Office of the President of Ukraine]
