Event Horizon Issue 12
Update for: 18 July - 7 August 2024
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
Kim Jong Un meets Russian vice defence minister
Kim Jong Un received a Russian military delegation led by Vice-Minister of Defence Aleksey Krivoruchko on 18 July. Both parties agreed to strengthen military cooperation for safeguarding mutual security interests. [KCNA]
North Korean arms transfer to Russia continues
South Korea’s defence minister Shin Won-sik stated that, as of 15 July, North Korea had shipped to Russia “scores of short-range ballistic missiles” and containers that could “hold over 5.2 million” 152 mm artillery shells. Debris collected in Kyiv Oblast in early August suggests that Russia has likely resumed using North Korean ballistic missiles against Ukraine after a five-month hiatus. [The Korea Times, Defense Express, EH3]
On 30 July, a purported new-type North Korean anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system was spotted inside Russian territory near Ukraine's Kharkiv region. If confirmed, this would be the second known use of North Korean missiles by the Russian army, following the Hwasong-11 series ballistic missiles. Vitalii Sarantsev, a Ukrainian spokesperson for the Operational Tactical Group "Kharkiv," said that the deployment of North Korean ATGMs was yet to be confirmed. [Telegram, US Defense Intelligence Agency, ONN, NKnews, Defense Express]
Left: A three-axle wheeled vehicle with what appears to be a weapon station on top, spotted near Russian-Ukrainian border. Right: North Korean Non-Line-of-Sight (NLOS) type ATGM launcher. Images: Telegram (left), KCTV (right).
Seoul monitors new China-North Korea dynamics
Amid signs of cooling China-North Korea relations, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service stated that it is closely monitoring the dynamics between China and North Korea. In late July, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that Kim Jong Un had allegedly given orders to his diplomats in Beijing that they “should not worry about conflicting with the Chinese side” when carrying out their duties. [Yonhap, JoongAng Ilbo, EH9, EH11]
North Korea deploys SRBMs, vows to strengthen nuclear deterrence
Kim Jong Un attended a delivery ceremony for 250 mobile ballistic missile launchers intended for deployment at frontline units. In total, the launchers could fire up to 1,000 presumably nuclear-capable Hwasong-11Ra/D short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). In his speech at the ceremony, Kim Jong Un vowed to achieve “a more refined and improved posture of [North Korea's] nuclear forces as soon as possible.” [KCNA, KCNA, ONN]
Earlier, on 1 July, North Korea claimed that it test-fired two “new-type tactical ballistic missiles capable of carrying 4.5 ton-class super-large warheads” and announced that it would test them again in July. However, as of 7 August, the test has not occurred. [EH11]
Military activities of South Korea and allies
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21-22 July: South Korea's military broadcasted K-pop songs and news through loudspeakers along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in response to North Korea's repeated launch of trash balloons. Earlier, South Korea’s defence ministry warned of the danger of landmines planted by the North inside the DMZ being washed into the South by heavy rainfall. [Yonhap, Yonhap, Yonhap, EH10]
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22 July: South Korea and US armies kicked off a two-week long live-fire exercise 30 km south of the Demilitarized Zone. This live-fire exercise had previously only been conducted by the US military. [Yonhap]
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23 July - 8 August: Joint air drills in South Korea’s Suwon, involving fighter jets of the US Marine Corps and South Korean air force. [Yonhap]
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28 July: South Korea, Japan and the US signed a document on the Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework. Under this agreement, the three nations will enhance real-time data sharing on North Korean missile launches and regularly conduct joint drills. The three countries have also agreed to expand the trilateral Freedom Edge exercise. [Yonhap, Yonhap]
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30 July - 1 August: South Korea and the US held the first table-top exercise on integrating South Korea's advanced conventional military with US nuclear capabilities to better respond to North Korea's nuclear threats. [Yonhap, USFK]
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2 August: Germany joined the US-led UN Command, established to oversee the Korean War armistice, as the 18th official member state. Germany’s membership marked the first expansion of the UN Command since Italy was reinstated as a member in 2013. [USFK]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Pyongyang might conduct 7th nuclear test around US presidential election
South Korea’s defence minister Shin Won-sik said that his ministry was not ruling out the possibility that North Korea could conduct its seventh nuclear test “right before or after the US presidential election” in November. [Yonhap]
Ulchi Freedom Shield will not include nuclear attack scenario
According to the US Forces Korea commander, South Korea and the US will not incorporate a North Korean nuclear attack scenario into the major annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, scheduled for August. [Yonhap]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
Taiwan holds major annual exercise
Taiwan's armed forces conducted the annual Han Kuang military exercise from 22 to 25 July. This year's exercise was held under more realistic conditions than in previous iterations, and trained troops on rules of engagement to prepare for possible disruptions to the chain of command during wartime. [CNA]
Taiwan’s navy worn down by attrition
Taiwan’s audit authorities recently disclosed that, as of late July 2023, 14 out of 26 main surface combatants of Taiwan’s navy were behind on their maintenance schedules, affecting the reliability of the vessels and force deployment. The delay was attributed to heavy patrol duties to ward off PLA vessels. [CNA, UDN]
In July, Taiwan’s military reported detecting Chinese naval vessels around Taiwan 220 times. It also detected 572 Chinese military aircraft, with 423 of them crossing the Strait Median Line. [Taiwan MND, Liberty Times]
China, Philippines reach informal Second Thomas Shoal agreement
The Philippines’ National Task Force West Philippine Sea announced that the Philippines and China reached a “provisional understanding” on the resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal/Ren'ai Jiao in order to de-escalate tension. Under this informal agreement, the Armed Forces of the Philippines carried out a rotation and resupply mission on 27 July to the Sierra Madre, a landing ship intentionally grounded at the Second Thomas Shoal/Ren'ai Jiao in 1999. China’s foreign ministry said the Chinese side let the Philippine vessels through after confirming on-site that the vessels “carried only humanitarian living necessities,” while the Philippine side stated that there was no boarding and inspection by the Chinese Coast Guard during the resupply mission. [Philippine National Task Force, Chinese MFA, PNA, PCG, CCG]
On 3 August, Bloomberg reported that substantial reinforcements had been made to the Sierra Madre, and the grounded ship could last for at least another decade. [Bloomberg]
Maritime cooperative activities in the SCS
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1 August: The Philippine and US navies held a maritime cooperative activity aimed at enhancing operational coordination. [PNA]
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2 August: The Philippine Navy and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force conducted their first bilateral maritime cooperative activity. [Philippine armed forces]
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7-8 August: The Philippines, Australia, Canada and the US conducted their first multilateral maritime cooperative activities. In response, China carried out a joint combat patrol near the Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island. The PLA Southern Theater Command stated that it is monitoring “all military activities that disrupt the South China Sea, create hotspots, and undermine regional peace and stability.” [Philippine armed forces, Philippine armed forces, PLA Southern Theater Command]
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9 August: The Philippine and Vietnamese coast guards will kick off their first joint exercise in the South China Sea. [NHK, AP]
US strengthens alliances in the Indo-Pacific
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28 July: The US Secretary of State, US Secretary of Defense, Japanese Foreign Minister, and Japanese Defense Minister convened the US-Japan Security Consultative Committee in Tokyo. The discussions resulted in a phased plan to transform US Forces Japan (USFJ) into a joint force headquarters, empowering USFJ with primary responsibility for coordinating security activities in and around Japan. [US DoD, Japan Times, EH6, Chinese FMA]
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30 July: During another “2+2” meeting on 30 July between the US and the Philippines in Manila, both nations reaffirmed that the Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks against either country's armed forces, aircraft, and public vessels, including those of their coast guards, anywhere in the South China Sea. They also discussed concrete measures on modernising the Philippines' defence and civilian law enforcement capabilities. [US DoD]
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6 August: A subsequent “2+2” meeting in Annapolis between the US and Australia resulted in the announcement of new initiatives aimed at enhancing force posture and defence industrial cooperation between the two nations. [US DoD]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Gradual increase of Taiwan’s defence spending
Taiwan’s defence spending in 2025 is projected to reach 647 billion NTD (19.7 billion USD). Under the previous Tsai Ing-wen administration and the current Lai Ching-te administration, Taiwan’s defence spending has seen a gradual increase from approximately 2.0% to 2.6% of its GDP. [Presidential Office, Prime News]
Taiwan’s defence spending from 2017 to 2024. Source: CNA
According to a newly released control list for military items, Taiwan will continue developing indigenous air and missile defence, sea-control, and limited counter-strike capabilities. [Taiwan MND]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
War in Ukraine: latest developments
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Ukraine received its first batch of 10 F-16 fighter jets after months of anticipation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showcased the newly arrived jets, stating that they would boost the country’s ability to resist Russian invasion. Ukraine is expected to receive a total of 79 F-16s by the end of 2025 [NYT, AP, Euromaidan, Economist]
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China’s Central Military Commission and other agencies adjusted export control regulations on drones amid criticism from the US and its allies over Beijing’s support for Russia's war in Ukraine. The new regulations, with more restrictions on the export of technologies that may have military applications, will take effect on 1 September. This change came shortly after Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's visit to China. [Bloomberg, Kyiv Independent, Chinese custom]
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In a BBC interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed the need for global pressure on Russia to end the war, highlighting the importance of diplomacy alongside military efforts. In a separate interview with French reporters, Zelenskyy called for Russia's inclusion in a November peace summit, following a previous summit in Switzerland that excluded Russia. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded that no summit involving Russia was currently being prepared. [BBC, France 24, Interfax]
US discloses nuclear warhead numbers
The US revealed that it possesses 3,748 nuclear warheads as of September 2023, according to newly declassified stockpile data. In addition, 69 warheads were dismantled in 2023, the lowest since 1994. This release also includes previously withheld data for 2021 and 2022, which indicates that the US stockpile has remained relatively stable over the past several years, with only minor fluctuations. [NNSA, FAS]
US considers increasing deployed nuclear warheads
At the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Dr Vipin Narang stated that while there is no immediate need to increase the nuclear stockpile, adjustments to the number of deployed forces may become necessary if China, Russia and North Korea continue their current nuclear trajectories. He noted that Washington does not need to match its competitors warhead-for-warhead or “outnumber their combined total forces to deter them” but is committed to deploying what is required to credibly deter adversaries and protect the US and its allies. [US DOD]
In addition, a bipartisan Commission on the National Defense Strategy, established by the US Congress, found America’s military unprepared for a major war, citing significant threats from Russia and China. The Commission stressed the importance to strengthen the US strategic deterrent, while ensuring these efforts do not detract from modernising conventional forces. [RAND, Defense News]
US-Russia prisoners swap
After months of negotiations, the largest prisoner swap since the Cold War between Russia and the US occurred on 1 August. Russia released 16 people, including journalist Evan Gershkovich, ex-Marine Paul Whelan, who was jailed on espionage charges, and Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza. In return, the US and European countries handed over eight Russians, including Vadim Krasikov, who was convicted of murder in Germany. [BBC, AP]
Analysts suggested that the swap bolstered the current US administration's political standing ahead of the Presidential election, and it may also be used by Russia to portray itself as a major power reminiscent of the Soviet Union. For the Russian opposition abroad, the release of high-profile opposition members could provide new momentum for their work. [Carnegie Politika]
Russia conducts third stage of non-strategic nuclear weapon exercises
Russia's military conducted the third stage of its non-strategic nuclear weapon exercises, taking place in the Central and Southern military districts. In this phase, personnel from missile formations in these districts carried out combat training, including handling special training ammunition for the Iskander-M tactical missile systems. Earlier phases of the exercises focused on preparing units from the Southern and Leningrad military districts, airspace and naval forces for the operational use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. [Russian MOD, EH10, EH9, ONN]
2024 NPT PrepCom concludes in Geneva
The 2024 NPT Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting took place in Geneva from 22 July to 2 August. It was the second of three sessions leading to the 2026 NPT Review Conference. The meeting concluded without consensus on an outcome document, reflecting ongoing challenges in addressing critical issues. Key discussion topics included calls for nuclear-weapon states to advance disarmament commitments, concerns about nuclear modernization programs, and debates on risk reduction measures. Regional issues, such as the situation in Ukraine, North Korea's nuclear programme, and the importance of establishing a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East.
The state parties agreed to release the final summary prepared by the Chair, which noted the diverse perspectives among state parties, indicating a need for continued discussions ahead of the 2026 Review Conference. The next preparatory committee meeting is scheduled to take place in New York from 28 April to 9 May 2025. [UNODA, Chair’s Summary]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Ukraine advances on Russian territory
In a surprise move, Ukraine launched a major cross-border incursion into Russia's Kursk region. According to Russian sources, as of 7 August, Russia could have lost control of up to 350 square km of territory. Additionally, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported confirmed Ukrainian advances of up to 10 km into the Kursk region. Russian authorities claimed their forces are repelling the attack and have declared a state of emergency in the region. The incursion marks the largest cross-border raid into Russian territory since Putin’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. The strategic thinking behind this incursion remains unclear at this point. [Reuters, Reuters, AP, Agenstvo, ISW, Interfax]
In 2024, Russia consistently gained more territory each month compared to Ukraine. Although Russia's advances slowed down by nearly half since peaking in May, they continued to make progress into Ukrainian territory. [Russia Matters]
In recent remarks, President Putin suggested that Russia might broaden the scope of its military doctrine to include the potential use of nuclear weapons to protect the country's territorial integrity. For more context, refer to: Russia’s Nuclear Signalling: Non-Strategic Nuclear Exercises and Future Doctrine Changes.
Biden exits 2024 race, endorses Harris as Democratic nominee
President Joe Biden announced he will not seek re-election in 2024 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. After an official nomination as the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz, known for his progressive policies and strong Midwest ties, is seen as a strategic choice to win battleground states. Recent surveys suggest that Democrats are more optimistic about their chances against the Republicans, with many voters feeling energised and motivated to participate in the November election. [Joe Biden X/Twitter, CNN, Kamala Harris X/Twitter, CBS News]
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