Event Horizon - Issue 18

North Korea steps up military support to Russia

According to a Ukrainian intelligence assessment obtained by the Financial Times (FT), North Korea has provided Russia with approximately 50 170 mm self-propelled guns (SPGs) and 20 upgraded 240 mm multiple rocket launchers (MRLs) in recent weeks. Several days prior to the FT report, on 14 November, a cargo train transporting North Korean 170 mm SPGs was spotted in central Russia. [Financial Times, X]

On 12 November, the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation was ratified by a decree from Kim Jong Un. If the alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow continues to deepen, North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 troops over time to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine, Bloomberg reported, citing individuals familiar with assessments by some G20 countries. [Bloomberg, KCNA]

As of mid-November 2024, over 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia, with some engaging in combat in the Kursk region. Since late 2023, North Korea has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles and over nine million artillery shells. [Nikkei, Yonhap]

A train carrying North Korean 170 mm SPGs was geolocated in central Russia on 14 November 2024. [@Archer83Able]

Kim Jong Un meets Russian natural resources minister

Kim Jong Un met Alexandr Kozlov, Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, on 18 November, calling for "more extensive and diversified" cooperation between their countries. Kozlov led a government delegation to Pyongyang to participate in the 11th meeting of the DPRK-Russia Intergovernmental Committee for Cooperation in Trade, Economy, Science and Technology. [KCNA]

Xi: China not allowing conflict and turmoil on the Peninsula

In his meeting with outgoing US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the 31st APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Lima, Peru, Chinese leader Xi Jinping stated that China “does not allow conflict and turmoil to happen on the Korean Peninsula.” He further emphasised that China would not “sit idly by” when its strategic security and core interests are under threat. [Chinese MFA]

Also in Lima, leaders from South Korea, Japan and the US agreed to establish a secretariat aimed at further institutionalising trilateral cooperation under the Biden administration, a move criticised by Pyongyang as anti-DPRK and destabilising to power balance in the region. [KCNA, White House]

North Korean military activities

• 14 November: Kim Jong Un inspected the flight test of domestically developed suicide drones and underscored the need to mass produce these drones as soon as possible. [KCNA]

• 14-15 November: The Fourth Conference of Battalion Commanders and Political Instructors of the KPA was held to enhance combat capabilities by strengthening the role of battalion-level officers. During the meeting, Kim Jong Un vowed to strengthen the nation’s self-defence forces, with its nuclear weapons serving as the central pillar, “limitlessly and endlessly without satisfaction.” [KCNA, KCNA]

• 8-15 November: South Korean military detected GPS jamming signals along its border with the North, and stated that the signals were likely linked to the North's counter-drone training. [Yonhap]

South Korean military activities

• 8 November: South Korea launched a Hyunmoo-II aeroballistic missile in response to North Korea’s recent missile launches, including the launch of short-range ballistic missiles on 5 November and a Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile on 31 October. [Yonhap, EH17]

• 13-15 November: South Korea, Japan and the US conducted their second trilateral multi-domain exercise in international waters south of South Korea's Jeju Island. Held four months after the inaugural exercise in late June, the drill featured various warships and aircraft, including the US aircraft carrier George Washington and F-35 stealth fighter jets. [Yonhap, EH11]

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH 

Philippines intends to buy mid-range capability launchers

Gilberto Teodoro, defence secretary of the Philippines, told the Financial Times (FT) that his country intended to procure the mid-range capability (MRC) missile launchers, which the US brought to the Philippines in April 2024 for bilateral military exercises. A spokesperson for the Armed Forces of the Philippines told the FT that the military continued to train with the launchers. [FT]

The MRC can launch the Tomahawk cruise missile, which has a range sufficient to cover the entire South China Sea and a significant portion of China, as well as the SM-6, a long-range air defence missile with anti-ship and anti-ballistic missile capabilities. Previously, the US had approved the sale of Tomahawk cruises to Japan and Australia. [IISS, EH6]

Trump’s cabinet picks lean on China hawks

US President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees heavily lean on China hawks, signalling a hardline approach to Beijing on issues ranging from Taiwan to bilateral trade. Among Trump’s picks is Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who, if confirmed, would become the first Secretary of State to have been sanctioned by Beijing and banned from travelling to China. [FOX, Aljazeera]

Taiwan might increase arms purchase under Trump administration

The Financial Times reported that Taiwan was likely to make a 15 billion USD request to purchase Patriot missiles, Aegis destroyers and F-35 fighter jets after Trump takes office. In response, Taiwan’s Defence Minister Koo Li-hsiung stated during a Legislative Yuan hearing that he was not aware of such a wish list and that US arms sales to Taiwan would be discussed through existing bilateral communication channels. [FT, Legislative Yuan]