Event Horizon - Issue 17
Update for: 16 October - 7 November 2024
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
North Korea sends troops to Russia
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20-23 October: South Korea’s intelligence agency reported that approximately 3,000 North Korean soldiers are believed to have been sent to Russia, with an additional 10,000 expected to be deployed by December. [Yonhap, Yonhap]
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25 October: North Korean vice foreign minister Kim Jong Gyu remarked that if the reported troop deployment to Russia were true, it would be “an act conforming with the regulations of international law..” [KCNA]
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1 November: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that as many as 8,000 North Korean forces have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region. [Reuters]
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6 November: Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said a "small group" of North Korean soldiers had come under Ukrainian attack. [BBC]
In response to AFP’s inquiry about the alleged deployment of North Korean troops, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry stated that China was unaware of any specific exchanges or cooperation between North Korea and Russia. “The DPRK and Russia are two independent sovereign states, and decisions on developing bilateral relations are matters for them alone,” the spokesperson added. [Chinese MFA]
North Korea to stand by Russia “until victory”
North Korean foreign minister Choe Son Hui met with her Russian counterpart Lavrov in Moscow on 11 November. During their meeting, Lavrov expressed full support for measures taken by the North “to deter the aggressive policy of the US and its allies and ensure regional peace and stability.” Choe, in turn, said that North Korea “will always stand firm by our Russian comrades until victory." She also told Lavrov that Kim Jong Un had given instructions to provide support to Russia in its “sacred war on a sustainable and powerful basis, without regard to anyone." [TASS, KCNA]
On 4 November, Choe met with Russian President Putin in the Kremlin, conveying Kim Jong Un’s "sincere, warm, comradely greetings" to Putin. [Reuters]
North Korea launches its largest solid-propellant ICBM
On 31 October, North Korea launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-19, marking its 11th successful ICBM test. The Hwasong-19 is also North Korea’s largest solid-propellant ICBM to date. A day before the launch, South Korea’s military intelligence agency had warned that North Korea had completed preparations for a long-range missile test. In response to the launch, South Korea, Japan and the US conducted joint air drills south of the Korean Peninsula, involving one B-1B bomber. [KCNA, The Korea Times, Yonhap]
DPRK ICBM FLIGHT TESTS*
|
|
Date |
Apogee |
Distance |
Flight time |
|
Hwasong-14 |
4 July 2017 |
2,802 km |
933 km |
~39 minutes |
|
Hwasong-14 |
28 July 2017 |
3,724.9 km |
998 km |
~47 minutes |
|
Hwasong-15 |
29 November 2017 |
4,475 km |
950 km |
~53 minutes |
|
Hwasong-15** |
24 March 2022 |
6,248.5 km |
1,090 km |
~68 minutes |
|
Hwasong-17 |
18 November 2022 |
6,040.9 km |
999.2 km |
~69 minutes |
|
Hwasong-15 |
18 February 2023 |
5,768.5 km |
989 km
|
~67 minutes |
|
Hwasong-17 |
16 March 2023 |
6,045 km |
1,000.2 km |
~69 minutes |
|
Hwasong-18 |
13 April 2023 |
Below 3,000 km |
About 1,000 km |
Unclear |
|
Hwasong-18 |
12 July 2023 |
6,648.4 km |
1,001.2 km |
~75 minutes |
|
Hwasong-18 |
18 December 2023 |
6,518.2 km |
1,002.3 km |
~74 minutes |
|
Hwasong-19 |
31 October 2024 |
7,687.5km |
1,001.2km |
~86 minutes |
*Possible partial or failed tests of the Hwasong-17 ICBM, conducted on 27 February, 5 March, 16 March, 4 May, 25 May and 3 November 2022, are not included. Apogee, distance and flight time as reported by DPRK state media, except the launch on 3 April 2023.
**While the DPRK reported the event as a Hwasong-17 launch, UN member state information provided to the UN Panel of Experts suggested that a Hwasong-15 may have been launched instead (S/2022/668).
Other military activities on the Peninsula
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17 October: Kim Jong Un inspected the Second Corps Headquarters of the KPA, where he reminded the KPA of the “stark fact that the ROK is a foreign and indisputable enemy state.” He also urged the KPA to further improve warfighting capabilities. [KCNA]
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21 October - 1 November: South Korean, US and Australian air forces conducted the Freedom Flag 24-1 aerial manoeuvre. This two-week joint manoeuvre, held for the first time, replaces the regular large-scale air exercises between South Korea and the US, including the Korea Flying Training in the first half of the year and Vigilant Defense in the second. [US Pacific Air Forces, Yonhap]
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23 October: North Korean media reported that Kim Jong Un visited a strategic missile base at an undisclosed location, where he inspected Hwasong-18 solid-propellant ICBMs. Kim directed the strategic rocket force to further modernise and fortify missile bases, emphasising the need to maintain high readiness for counterstrikes. [KCNA]
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1 November: For the first time, South Korea and the US conducted a joint drone strike drill, featuring a South Korean RQ-4B Global Hawk surveillance drone and a US MQ-9 Reaper attack drone. The exercise was held at an undisclosed location in South Korea. [Yonhap]
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5 November: North Korea launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles towards the East Sea/Sea of Japan. [Japanese MoD]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
EU urges South Korea to step up aid to Ukraine
During a visit to South Korea on 4 November, EU High Representative Josep Borrell urged Seoul to enhance its support for Ukraine. Addressing questions about whether this might include military aid, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul stated at a press conference in Ottawa on 5 November that all options were under consideration. However, an official from South Korea's presidential office previously indicated that Ukraine had not requested 155 mm artillery shells and that such a delivery was not being considered. [Kyiv Independent, Reuters, Yonhap]
“Unspecified preparation” inside Punggyeri nuclear test site
On 30 October, South Korea’s military reported that the North had finished “unspecified preparation” within the Punggyeri nuclear test site. [Yonhap]
Earlier, on 24 October, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) stated in its newly released nuclear intelligence report that North Korea’s pursuit of more advanced nuclear weapon designs may be driving the need for additional nuclear tests. The report also suggested that North Korea could employ nuclear weapons at any stage of a crisis or conflict, with the country’s nuclear rationale “shifting from a sole focus on deterrence with limited battlefield effect to limited/discretionary nuclear use on the Korean Peninsula.” [DIA]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
DIA assessment on China’s nuclear capabilities
The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released its report Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rivals. Among other points, the report stated that:
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China’s nuclear strategy “probably includes consideration of a nuclear strike in response to a nonnuclear attack threatening the viability of China’s nuclear forces or C2 (Command and Control), or that approximates the strategic effects of a nuclear strike, despite the NFU (No First Use) policy. Beijing probably would also consider using its nuclear force if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan gravely threatened the regime’s survival.”
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China’s “comingling of nuclear and conventional capabilities raises the potential for inadvertent escalation during a conflict.”
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“The PLA is implementing a launch-on-warning (LOW) posture where it would be able to, upon warning of a missile strike, launch a counter strike before an enemy first strike can detonate.” China’s LOW posture would be “broadly similar to the US and Russian LOW posture.” To support this posture, Beijing also “continues to outfit hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos.”
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The DIA assesses that China currently possesses more than 500 deliverable nuclear warheads in its stockpile. The ongoing “largest nuclear expansion” in Chinese history is expected to enable Beijing to have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.
[DIA]
Xi inspects strategic rocket force
On 19 October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping inspected a brigade equipped with the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, capable of delivering both nuclear and conventional warheads. During the inspection, Xi urged the troops to “strengthen their deterrence and combat capabilities and resolutely fulfil the tasks entrusted to them by the Party and the people.” Since May 2023, the Strategic Rocket Force has been central to an anti-corruption campaign targeting the PLA that led to the removal of three rocket force commanders and two defence ministers. [Xinhua, Sing Tao Daily, UDN, EH11]
Taiwan to disband triad-linked, pro-Beijing party
Taiwan’s Ministry of Interior said on 6 November that it was to petition the constitutional court for the formal disbandment of the China Unification Promotion Party (CUPP). The statement came two days after prosecutors brought charges against two key CUPP members, who allegedly received 74 million NTD (2.3 million USD) from China to influence Taiwan’s elections. The ministry accused the CUPP of multiple violations, including the National Security Act, the Anti-infiltration Act and the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act. [CNA, Taipei Times]
The CUPP, a political party with links to triads and an estimated 30,000 members, has faced scrutiny since 2010, as various police agencies have reported 134 CUPP members involved in crimes ranging from obstruction of justice to human trafficking and homicide. [Taipei Times, CommonWealth Magazine]
Military activities near Taiwan
In October, Taiwan's military reported detecting Chinese naval vessels around Taiwan’s main island 191 times. Additionally, it detected 543 Chinese military aircraft, 370 of which crossed the Strait Median Line. [Taiwanese MND, DPP]
On 21 October, a US navy destroyer and a Canadian navy frigate conducted a joint transit through the Taiwan Strait, followed by a French navy transit on 29 October. [USN, Taiwan News]
First Chinese dual-carrier drill in SCS
China's two active aircraft carriers, the Shandong and Liaoning, conducted their first dual-carrier exercise in the South China Sea in late October. State media reported that the combined fleet, with a total displacement approaching 300,000 tons, showcased the PLAN’s robust combat capabilities. [Phoenix TV, CCTV]
Image: Weibo
Philippines conducts island-retaking drill
The Philippines kicked off a two-week-long manoeuvre on 4 November involving over 3,000 Filipino army, navy and air force personnel. As part of the manoeuvre, speedboats with marines and navy sailors landed on the beach of the Loaita/Kota Island in the disputed Spratly Islands, supported by a Philippine navy frigate providing cover nearby. Philippine Army general Romeo Brawner Jr., who observed the island retaking drill, said Chinese navy ships observing from a distance “added realism“ to the exercise. [AP, VOA]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Australia to invest 12 billion USD in missile manufacturing
Australia will invest up to 12 billion USD to bolster missile manufacturing as part of an effort to enhance its defence industry amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Defence industry minister Pat Conroy announced the plan in Canberra on October 30, stating that strategic competition between China and the US was “sharpest” in the Indo-Pacific region. [FT]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
Trump wins US presidential election
On 6 November, Donald Trump won the US presidential election, becoming the country's 47th president-elect. With a win in Wisconsin, Trump secured the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency. He later won Michigan on Wednesday afternoon along with Pennsylvania. These states, traditionally Democratic-leaning, supported Trump in 2016 but had swung to President Joe Biden in 2020. [AP]
Russia conducts nuclear drills; US tests ICBM
On 29 October, Russia commenced large-scale annual nuclear force exercises to simulate a retaliatory strike. Speaking in a video call with military leaders, Putin cited emerging external threats as the reason for maintaining modern, ready-to-use strategic forces. He added that nuclear weapons are an ''extreme, exceptional'' measure for national security essential to Russia’s sovereignty, supporting strategic deterrence and maintaining global nuclear ''parity and the balance of power globally''.
The exercises included the firing of a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Plesetsk launch pad, submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and air-launched long-range cruise missiles.
Soon after, on 6 November, the US military conducted a scheduled test launch of an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM from California's Vandenberg Space Force Base. The Vandenberg press office described the test as routine, intended to demonstrate the nation’s deterrent readiness and planned years in advance, unrelated to current global events. [Kremlin, AP News, Vandenberg Space Force Base]
Russian advancements in Ukraine
American military and intelligence officials believe the war in Ukraine has shifted as Russian forces intensify their offensive, according to a report by The New York Times. Contrary to earlier assessments that Russia would struggle to make significant gains, Russian troops have advanced substantially in eastern Ukraine and reclaimed over a third of the territory previously held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. Russia has also escalated drone strikes on Ukraine, increasing from 350 in July to 1,500 in September. While Ukraine continues to request Western arms, US officials note that weapon shortages are no longer the primary issue; instead, Ukraine faces a critical shortage of soldiers due to significant casualties, with The New York Times citing an estimate of 57,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in combat. Western officials acknowledge that Russia also faces troop and equipment shortages, and some US officials suggest that continued support could enable Ukraine to capitalise on Russia's strains in the coming months. [NYT]
Ukraine prefers NATO membership over nuclear weapons
During the European Council summit in Brussels, Zelenskyy told reporters that Ukraine’s survival could only be ensured by joining NATO or obtaining nuclear weapons, stating that Ukraine had suffered after giving up its nuclear weapons and now was at war. Later that day, during a press conference with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Zelenskyy clarified that Ukraine was not pursuing nuclear weapons development, emphasising that NATO membership currently offers the strongest available security guarantee. In response, Putin warned that any Ukrainian pursuit of nuclear weapons would be detected and met with an ''appropriate'' Russian response. [President of Ukraine, NATO News, Reuters]
BRICS summit in Kazan
The BRICS Summit in Kazan on 22-24 October brought together nearly 20 world leaders, including Xi Jinping (China), Narendra Modi (India), Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Türkiye) and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The summit concluded with the Kazan Declaration, reaffirming BRICS' commitment to disarmament and non-proliferation and stressing the importance of peaceful dialogue on Ukraine, though no specific conflict resolution measures were adopted. The summit saw no progress on Russia’s BRICS Bridge payment system, aimed at reducing dollar reliance via transactions in national currencies. Meanwhile, the BRICS Pay system is set to launch by late 2024, allowing foreign Visa and Mastercard users to make QR-based payments in Russia, with potential for Russian transactions abroad. Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that over 30 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, with some already offered partner status as membership criteria are developed. [Reuters, RBC, Tass, Kremlin, Tinkoff]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
North Korean soldiers in Russia
As reported in EH16, the presence of North Korean troops in Russia has been confirmed by both Ukrainian and NATO officials, with approximately 11,000 soldiers, including 500 officers and three senior generals, from the North Korean General Staff. These include General Kim Yong Bok, Deputy Chief of Staff for Special Operations, seen as a key representative for Kim Jong Un in Russia; General Lee Chang Ho, responsible for Intelligence; and Major General Shin Geum Cheol, head of the Main Operations Directorate.
While most of the North Korean contingent is still undergoing training and is yet to be deployed to the frontlines, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov reported that Ukrainian forces already had their first minor clash with North Korean troops.
Russian authorities are reportedly offering 2,000 USD per month to North Korean soldiers and plan to increase food shipments to North Korea, with the total monthly expenses for the contingent estimated at 20 million USD. Additional agreements may include sending up to 4,000 North Korean labourers to Russia. In exchange, Russia is expected to provide North Korea with space technology and assurances of support if a conflict arises on the Korean peninsula. Food shipments are also projected to surge from the previous annual supply of 50,000-100,000 tons to 600,000-700,000 tons, constituting partial payment for North Korean involvement. [EH16, Politico, NIS, BBC News Russia, Ukraine Permanent Mission to UN, KBC, Korea Herald,]
UN initiatives on study of nuclear war effects and disarmament
The UN General Assembly’s First Committee passed two resolutions aimed at studying the impact of nuclear weapons and advancing disarmament verification. The first, led by Ireland and New Zealand, proposes to establish an expert panel to study nuclear war's immediate and long-term impacts—the first UN-led examination of this scope since the 1980s. Supported by 144 member states, including China and NATO members like Germany and Italy, the resolution faced opposition only from Russia, France and the UK, with the US abstaining. [BAS, RCW]
The second resolution, introduced by Brazil and Norway, seeks to explore creating a UN-based Group of Scientific and Technical Experts on Nuclear Disarmament Verification (GSTE-NDV). This resolution passed with overwhelming support, with 173 votes in favour, Russia voting against and Iran and Syria abstaining. [VERTIC, RCW]
