Event Horizon - Issue 22
Update for: 16-31 January 2025
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
Kim Jong Un inspects uranium enrichment plant and nuclear weapons institute
State media reported on 29 January that Kim Jong Un inspected a uranium enrichment plant and the Nuclear Weapons Institute on an unspecified date. During the visit, Kim stated that nuclear weapons were "indispensable" amid a long-term confrontation with "the most vicious hostile countries." He also emphasised the need to exceed the plan for producing weapons-grade nuclear materials and strengthen the country’s nuclear shield. [KCNA]
In September 2024, Kim also inspected a uranium enrichment plant, which was likely the Kangson nuclear complex near Pyongyang, according to assessments. North Korea is known to operate two uranium enrichment facilities—one in Kangson and another in Yongbyon. [Yonhap, EH15]
Kim Jong Un inspects rows of centrifuges that produce weapons-grade uranium. Image: KCNA
North Korean state budget continues to prioritise defence, economy
North Korea’s Supreme People's Assembly announced that 15.9% of the state budget was allocated to the defence sector as a top priority in 2024. In 2025, 15.7% of the state budget is expected to be spent on defence. The total budget for 2025 will see a year-on-year increase of 3.8%.
North Korean state budget allocation in 2024 and 2025, according to KCNA
Updates on Pyongyang’s military support to Russia
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Budanov, revealed in an interview with The War Zone that North Korea has supplied Russia with 240 heavy artillery pieces over the past three months, comprising 120 170 mm self-propelled guns (SPGs) and 120 240 mm multiple rocket launchers (MRLs). Budanov also noted that Pyongyang is expected to deliver 150 Hwasong-11 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in 2025, in addition to the 148 missiles already supplied in 2024. [TWZ]
Among the 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to the Kursk region, at least 300 have been killed, while approximately 2,700 have been wounded. Citing US and Ukrainian officials, the New York Times (NYT) reported that the remaining troops have been pulled off the front lines and have not been seen for two weeks. However, US officials told the NYT that the North Koreans could return after additional training or after new tactics are developed to avoid such heavy casualties. On 24 January, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) stated that Pyongyang appeared to be accelerating preparations for additional troop deployments to Russia. [Yonhap, ISW, NYT]
Social media posts in late January allegedly showing North Korean 170 mm SPGs (Left) and what appears to be North Korean militia version 122 mm MRLs (Right) spotted in Russia. Images: Telegram, Telegram
North Korea tests “strategic” naval cruise missiles
On 25 January, North Korea test fired at least two “sea (underwater)-to-surface strategic cruise missiles.” The missiles, launched vertically from an inland location, reportedly flew 1,500 km before hitting their designated target in the West Sea/Yellow Sea. As their name suggests, the missiles, possibly nuclear-capable, are likely intended to be deployed on KPA naval vessels and submarines in the future. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) stated that it had detected signs of the launch in advance and monitored the missiles' flight. [KCNA, Yonhap]
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol indicted
On January 26, prosecutors officially indicted President Yoon Suk Yeol, who remains in detention, for orchestrating an insurrection after briefly imposing martial law last month. This marks the first time in South Korea’s history that a sitting President has been charged while in custody, with Yoon also facing impeachment. Three days earlier, acting Defence Minister Kim Seon-ho stressed that the South Korean military should focus on training and gain the public’s trust. [Yonhap, Yonhap]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
South Korea to enhance air and missile defence with new interceptors
On 16 January, the South Korean government approved a 1.19 billion USD project to produce the newly developed, homegrown Long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (L-SAM), a system reportedly capable of intercepting incoming targets at altitudes of 50 to 60 km, with production planned through 2030. Additionally, on 20 January, South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration announced a 329 million USD investment to develop the Low-Altitude Missile Defense (LAMD), an Iron Dome-like system designed to intercept heavy North Korean artillery rockets and shells. [Yonhap, Yonhap, EH19]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
Taiwan's defence budget frozen, risking military readiness
With a record-high 6.63% cut and an additional 8.3% frozen, Taiwan’s 2025 central government budget was narrowly passed by the opposition-majority Legislative Yuan on 21 January. Among the 90 billion NTD (2.73 billion USD) in frozen defence ministry funds, 30% of operational expenses for Taiwan’s armed forces were impacted, significantly hindering daily operations, including the procurement of spare parts and fuel. Furthermore, 50% of the 2025 budget for Taiwan’s second homegrown submarine was frozen, creating considerable uncertainties for the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS), a strategically crucial programme. [Executive Yuan, RTI]
The release of the frozen funds can only be authorised by the Legislative Yuan, controlled by opposition parties, namely the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP). The Ministry of National Defense warned that the unprecedented cuts and freezes would severely degrade the armed forces’ combat capabilities. [CNA]
Taiwan’s central government total budget for 2025 was cut by 6.63%, with another 8.3% frozen by opposition parties. Image: The News Lens
PLAN commissions new generation frigates
On 22 January, China’s first Type 054B frigate was commissioned into the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). This new generation frigate, with a displacement of approximately 5,000 tons, features advancements in stealth, combat management system and firepower, significantly enhancing performance compared to the current mainstay frigates, the Type 054A. [Xinhua]
Meanwhile, one of the six remaining Chi Yang-class (formerly US Knox-class) frigates was decommissioned in Taiwan after 55 years of service in both the US Navy and the Taiwanese Navy. Without immediate replacements, the retirement of this ageing frigate further exacerbates Taiwan’s challenges in countering PLA naval activities around the main island. [Liberty Times]
Taiwan investigates subversion and United Front cells
On 22 January, Taiwan’s prosecution authorities indicted six individuals under the National Security Law for organising and developing armed subversion groups for the Communist Party of China (CPC). Among the accused, two are former military personnel. [CNA, EH21]
Earlier, Taiwan’s Director-General of the National Security Bureau stated that the bureau had identified locations across four cities in Taiwan issuing Chinese (PRC) identity cards to Taiwanese citizens. According to Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, 679 Taiwanese citizens have had their citizenship revoked over the past decade for holding PRC nationality. [CNA, EH21]
First QUAD meeting under Trump administration
Amid geopolitical uncertainties triggered by Trump’s return to the Oval Office, foreign ministers from the QUAD countries (Australia, India, Japan and the US) met in Washington on 21 January. In a joint statement following the talks—hosted by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on his first day in office—the four nations reaffirmed their "shared commitment to strengthening a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, where the rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity are upheld and defended." [US Department of State]
Tensions in the South China Sea
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17–18 January: The US Navy and the Philippine Navy conducted a bilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA), involving the US Navy's Carrier Strike Group 1 and two Philippine Navy offshore patrol vessels. Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) carried out maritime and air combat readiness patrols in the South China Sea. [US Navy, Chinese MoD]
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20 January: Philippine authorities arrested a Chinese national and two Filipino citizens suspected of surveilling critical infrastructure, including military facilities. In a separate case, local media reported that several Chinese nationals, who had posed as Taiwanese tourists, were arrested for allegedly gathering intelligence on the Philippine Coast Guard and personnel movements. [PNA, GMA, Chinese MFA]
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23 January: The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported that it had prevented a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel cruising within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone from approaching Luzon Island. [PCG]
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24 January: The Philippines announced the suspension of a scientific survey after its vessels were harassed by the CCG and the Chinese navy near Candy Cay/Tiexian Jiao. The following day, the CCG claimed it had repelled two Philippine ships that were unlawfully entering the same waters. [Benar News, CGTN, CCG]
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25 January: According to the PCG, a vessel from the CCG used a long-range acoustic device to harass and intimidate PCG ships in the South China Sea. [PNA]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
FT: China builds world’s largest military command centre
The Financial Times reported that the PLA has been constructing a vast complex in western Beijing since mid-2024, which US intelligence believes will serve as a wartime command centre at least 10 times the size of the Pentagon. Satellite images of the site suggest the centre will feature deep, hardened bunkers to protect the leadership during conflicts, including nuclear war. According to a former senior US intelligence official, the facility will replace the PLA’s current command centre in Beijing’s Western Hills. [FT]
Taiwan strengthens undersea cable security
After a Chinese cargo ship allegedly damaged four communication cables north of Taiwan in early January, the Taiwan Coast Guard placed 52 suspicious cargo ships on a watchlist. Of these, 15 had loitered near Taiwan’s undersea cables in 2024. The coast guard stated it would deploy vessels to closely monitor these China-controlled ships if they re-enter waters near Taiwan. [DW, FTV]
Philippine soldiers to receive training on the Typhon system
In February, Philippine soldiers will train with the US Army's First Multi-Domain Task Force on the Typhon missile system. The training will focus on the payload delivery system and serve as preparation for larger upcoming exercises with the US military. According to Reuters, the US military has relocated its Typhon launchers from Laoag Airfield to another location on Luzon island, Philippines. [SCMP, Reuters]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Trump White House Archived' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
War in Ukraine - Battlefield update:
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24 and 29 January: Ukrainian drone strikes reportedly damaged an oil refinery and a thermal power plant in Russia's Ryazan region, followed by an attack on another refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region five days later. Additionally, Russian officials claim to have intercepted a drone attack on a nuclear power plant in the Smolensk region. [Politico, BBC, Reuters]
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27 January: Russia's Ministry of Defence announced the recapture of Nikolayevo-Daryino in the Kursk region. Meanwhile, Ukraine reported heavy Russian losses across the region, stating that Russian troops are being bogged down by defensive structures originally built by Moscow to counter Ukrainian forces. [Russian MoD, Reuters, National Interest, Militarnyi]
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27 and 29 January: Russia's Ministry of Defence announced the capture of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region, the last major defensive line and logistical hub for Ukrainian forces in the southern Donetsk direction. Two days later, the capture of Novoyelizavetovka was also reported. [Russian MoD, AP, Russian MoD]
Ukraine, UK sign 100-year partnership agreement
On 16 January, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a 100-year partnership agreement in Kyiv. The UK pledged annual military assistance of at least 3 billion GBP until 2030/31 and beyond if necessary. The deal covers cooperation in military, energy, scientific, cultural and economic sectors. It also seeks to strengthen military ties to bolster security in the Baltic, Black and Azov Seas to deter Russian aggression. The agreement comes amid uncertainties regarding US support for Ukraine under President Donald Trump's administration. Analysts view it as a symbolic and strategic move to bolster Ukraine's position and signal long-term Western commitment despite shifting geopolitical dynamics. [Kyiv Independent, UK Ministry of Defence]
Russia and Iran sign strategic partnership agreement
On 17 January 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 20-year "comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" in Moscow, aiming to deepen bilateral cooperation across various sectors, including security, defence and nuclear energy. Notably, while it stops short of a mutual defence pact, it obliges each country not to offer any military or other aid to an aggressor attacking the other party. [Kremlin]
Trump sworn in as US President; Rubio and Hegseth confirmed
On 20 January, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. Following the inauguration, the Senate confirmed several of President Trump's Cabinet key nominees: Marco Rubio as Secretary of State (99-0 vote) and Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense (51-50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote). [White House, Reuters, WSJ]
UK: Russian spy ship enters English Channel
On 22 January, the Russian intelligence gathering ship Yantar entered the English Channel for the second time in recent weeks, prompting the UK to deploy Royal Navy ships, Royal Air Force aircraft and a submarine. UK Defence Secretary John Healey stated that the vessel was used for mapping the UK’s underwater infrastructure and called its activity “another example of growing Russian aggression.” He warned that the UK would take firm action to protect its security. [UK Ministry of Defence, Bloomberg]
EU extends sanctions on Russia
On 27 January, the EU agreed to extend its wide-ranging sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until at least 31 July. These sanctions target various sectors, including trade, finance, energy, technology, industry, transport and luxury goods. The decision came after Hungary lifted its objections, following assurances from the European Commission on energy security. [Reuters]
Lukashenko declared winner of presidential elections
On 27 January, Belarus’s Central Election Commission (CEC) announced the results of the presidential election in Belarus. According to CEC, Aleksandr Lukashenko secured his seventh term as Belarus president with 86.8% of votes, extending his tenure until 2030. The election, held on 26 January, has been widely condemned by Western governments and human rights organisations as neither free nor fair, with accusations of fraud and repression dominating the discourse. [CEC Belarus, Reuters]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Trump's post-inauguration statements on Ukraine war, denuclearisation and NATO
In the days following his inauguration, President Trump has extensively commented on a number of key foreign policy issues. He expressed his intention to meet with Russian President Putin "immediately" to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and warned that failure to reach an agreement would result in increased sanctions and tariffs on Russian goods. He advocated for denuclearisation discussions involving the United States, Russia and China, expressing a desire to explore potential agreements to reduce nuclear stockpiles. He reiterated his long-standing criticism of NATO allies for insufficient defence and Ukraine aid spending. He called for European NATO members to increase their defence budgets to 5% of GDP, nearly double current levels. [Reuters, White House, CNN, Breaking Defense]
The Kremlin signalled readiness for negotiations on ending the Ukraine war, awaiting a formal approach from Washington. Putin suggested Ukraine could find a legal way to enter peace talks but accused Kyiv of lacking willingness to engage. On denuclearisation, Moscow supports discussions but insists they must include other nuclear powers like France and the UK. [Reuters, Reuters]
North Korean reinforcements expected to arrive in Russia
After suffering heavy losses in Russia's Kursk region, North Korea is expected to send more troops to support Moscow's war effort. According to a Pentagon official, reinforcements are anticipated to arrive within the next two months. [NYT]
NATO to boost weapon production, interoperability
According to Bloomberg, NATO plans to provide the defence industry with classified capability targets that specify the weapons and equipment each member state must produce. This initiative is part of an effort to boost production, described by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte as a “shift to a wartime mindset.” In a separate process, the alliance has begun sharing certain classified standards with the European Union to harmonise members' armed forces and enhance interoperability, covering aspects such as weapon calibres and common military terminology. [NATO News, Bloomberg]
