Event Horizon - Issue 21
Update for: 1-15 January 2025
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
North Korea tests hypersonic missile
On 6 January, North Korea test-fired an “intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile.” State media claimed the missile, previously referred to as the “Hwasong-16Na” during an April 2024 flight test, performed a turning and pulling-up manoeuvre before landing in the Sea of Japan/East Sea 1,500 km from the launch site. However, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) dismissed these claims as deceptive, stating that the missile actually travelled about 1,100 km and failed to successfully execute the reported manoeuvres. Despite this, the 6 January launch may represent the longest flight distance covered by a Hwasong-16Na to date. [KCNA, Yonhap, 38north]
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Image: KCTV, annotated by ONN
Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol arrested
On 15 January, South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested by police and investigators after spending weeks in the presidential compound to evade prosecution. Following his detention, the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) questioned Yoon on charges of insurrection related to his declaration of martial law in December 2024. [Yonhap, DW, EH20]
South Korean military activities
Amid the political turmoil in South Korea, the South Korean armed forces continue to conduct drills with allies and partners to deter and respond to Pyongyang’s evolving nuclear and missile threats.
- 15 January: South Korea conducted a joint air drill with Japan and the United States, involving South Korean F-15K and Japanese F-2 fighter jets, as well as at least one US B-1B strategic bomber. [Yonhap]
- 14-16 January: Over 250 personnel from the South Korean army and the US Forces Korea conducted an artillery drill to counter simulated North Korean attacks. [Yonhap]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
North Korea allegedly provides Russia SAMs, MRBMs
A North Korean short-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system was allegedly hit by Russian friendly fire in the Kursk region. The system, an imitation of the Russian Tor SAM, was first showcased in a military parade in Pyongyang in October 2020. The incident, if confirmed, would indicate that North Korea is using the war in Ukraine to test its modern military equipment. [Militarnyi, 38north]
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The SAM system hit by Russian-friendly fire shares a close resemblance to North Korea’s newly developed short-range SAM system. Image: Militarnyi
Earlier, a video clip that surfaced online in December 2024 also suggested that the North might have sent at least five tracked vehicles armed with Pukguksong-2 mid-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) to Russia, along with 170 mm self-propelled guns (SPGs). Should this incident be verified, it would mark Pyongyang’s first MRBM transfer to Russia. Meanwhile, the 170 mm SPGs have already reached the frontline in early January. [Militarnyi, Militarnyi]
North Korea may launch more missiles ahead of Trump’s inauguration
On 14 January, North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles from a northern province bordering China into the Sea of Japan/East Sea, six days before Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th US President. North Korean state media did not report the event, prompting speculation that the launch was a routine drill rather than an act of sabre-rattling. However, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) stated that it is closely monitoring the situation for additional launches. [Yonhap, Yonhap]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
NSB: China intensifies espionage, cyber and cognitive warfare against Taiwan
Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) warned that China is leveraging gang groups, underground banks, front companies, religious organisations and civilian networks to establish espionage networks and interfere in Taiwan’s democratic elections. The bureau also revealed that China has attempted to form “sniper teams” tasked with sabotage activities during a potential cross-Strait conflict. [NSB, Taiwan]
According to the NSB, Taiwan’s government service networks faced an average of 2.4 million cyberattacks daily in 2024—double the 1.2 million daily attacks recorded in 2023. The majority of these attacks were attributed to China-backed hacker groups. [NSB, Taiwan]
On the disinformation front, China has escalated its cognitive warfare tactics, aiming to erode public confidence in the government and exacerbate social divisions. In 2024, a total of 2.159 million instances of disinformation were recorded, surpassing the 1.329 million instances documented in 2023. [NSB, Taiwan]
Chinese ship damages Taiwan’s communication cables
On 3 January, a Cameroon-registered Chinese cargo ship damaged four communication cables in waters north of Keelung port, Taiwan. While China’s Taiwan Affairs Office described the incident as a routine maritime mishap, Taiwan’s foreign ministry suggested it was part of China’s grey zone tactics. The event echoes similar occurrences in November and December 2024, when Russia-controlled cargo ships allegedly damaged several energy and communication cables in the Baltic Sea. [PRC Taiwan Affairs Office, PTS, Liberty Times, EH19, EH20, MOFA, ROC]
China and Japan hold first military exchange in five years
From 13 to 17 January, a delegation from the PLA Eastern Theater Command met with senior Japanese defence officials, marking the first military exchange between the two countries in five years. The visit occurred amid growing concerns over Washington’s commitments to its allies after Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office. Meanwhile, under Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who assumed office in October 2024, Tokyo and Beijing have stepped up engagement efforts to repair bilateral ties. Japan is expected to invite Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi for a visit next month, potentially paving the way for a state visit by Chinese leader Xi Jinping. [Japan Times, SCMP]
On 8 January, the China Coast Guard (CCG) conducted a patrol in the waters surrounding the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, claimed by both China and Japan. [CCG]
Philippines protests China’s deployment of ‘monster ship’ in EEZ
Since early January, three large China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels, including the 12,000-ton “monster ship” CCG 5901, have been operating within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) stated that the goal of the latest CCG deployment is to alter the existing status quo, adding that the PCG was closely monitoring the CCG vessels’ movements. The Philippines National Security Council referred to the presence of the “monster ship” in the EEZ as an “escalation and provocation” and called on China to withdraw its force. [PCG, PNA]
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Movements of CCG ships within the Philippines’ EEZ in early January. Image: PCG
Earlier, on 29 December, the PLA Southern Theater Command conducted "combat readiness patrols" around the disputed Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island, reportedly deploying patrol aircraft, fighter jets and H-6 bombers. [Xinhua]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
China builds special barges to support amphibious landings
According to satellite image analysis, China is constructing several specialised barges to support amphibious landing operations. Equipped with a 130-metre-long extendable ramp, these barges could enable combat vehicles to land on hard surfaces beyond beaches or connect directly to coastal roads, providing greater flexibility for the PLA’s war planning. Due to urbanisation and changes along the coastline, suitable beaches for large-scale amphibious landings on Taiwan’s populated west coast have become increasingly scarce. [Naval News, All Source Analysis, World Journal]
Documentary prompts official probes into United Front activities
An explosive online documentary on China’s United Front work alleged that up to 200,000 Taiwanese citizens have been issued Chinese ID cards and household registrations, prompting Taiwanese authorities to launch investigations. [Focus Taiwan]
On 7 January, Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior revealed that five neighbourhood representatives—the lowest level of elected officials in Taiwan—hold Chinese nationality and will be removed from their positions. According to Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, 679 Taiwanese citizens have had their citizenship revoked over the past decade for holding Chinese household registrations or passports. [MAC, CNA, RFA, PTS]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
War in Ukraine - Battlefield update:
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6 January: A French army official publicly acknowledged the desertion of several dozen Ukrainian soldiers from a French military facility. The soldiers were part of the "Anne of Kyiv" brigade undergoing training by the French army. [Le Monde]
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6 January: The Russian defence ministry announced the capture of Kurakhove in Ukraine's Donetsk region after two months of heavy fighting. [AP]
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7 January: The Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed a new offensive in Russia's Kursk region, two days after the first Russian reports of new clashes in the area appeared. [Reuters]
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11 January: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on his Telegram channel that Ukrainian forces had captured DPRK soldiers for the first time. According to Zelenskyy, the two soldiers were injured during battles in the Kursk region and afterwards taken to Kyiv to receive medical care and to be questioned by the Ukrainian security service. [Zelenskyy Telegram]
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14 January: Ukraine conducted its reportedly most extensive attack yet on military facilities deep inside Russia, targeting factories, oil refineries and munitions depots with drones and Western-made missiles. Some targets were reportedly up to 1,100 km from the border. [Ukraine Armed Forces Telegram]
Pentagon announces final arms package for Ukraine before Trump takes office
On 9 January, the US Department of Defense (DoD) announced the Biden administration's final security assistance package for Ukraine. The 500 million USD package includes air defence missiles, support equipment for F-16s and other types of ammunition. The announcement came at the latest meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. With the inauguration of the Trump administration on 20 January, continued US military support appears uncertain, as President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised the arms deliveries and promised to bring the conflict to a swift diplomatic resolution. According to DoD officials, the Trump administration would still have a few billion dollars in authorised funds to continue supporting Ukraine. [DoD, CNN, Reuters]
