Event Horizon - Issue 20
Update for: 6-31 December 2024
The "Event Horizon" provides regular updates on developments that could impact the risk of conflict escalation. Our core objective is to bring attention to developments that could escalate to strategic level conflicts, including those that might lead to nuclear weapon use.
Image credits: KCNA, 'Republic of Korea' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
North Korea continues support for Russia’s war on Ukraine
According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea is preparing to rotate or increase its troop deployment in Russia while continuing to supply 240 mm multiple rocket launchers and 170 mm self-propelled guns. By the end of 2024, North Korea has sent significant quantities of military equipment and approximately 11,000 KPA troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. On 23 December, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said that the number of killed and wounded North Korean soldiers in Russia's Kursk Region had exceeded 3,000. [Kyiv Independent, EH18, Yonhap, Yonhap]
Pyongyang highlights Kim-Putin greetings, downplays China’s message
Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin exchanged New Year greeting letters in late December, prominently featured on the front and second pages of the Rodong Sinmun. In their letters, Kim referred to Putin as his “dearest friend and comrade,” while Putin pledged to further expand “beneficial bilateral cooperation in all major fields.” [KCNA, KCNA, Chosun]
In contrast, a New Year greeting from Xi Jinping was reported alongside messages from other foreign leaders. Moreover, the “Year of Friendship” between North Korea and China, marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties, concluded without a closing ceremony—a notable departure from past practice. [KCNA, Chosun]
South Korea further enhances space-based surveillance of North Korea
South Korea launched a synthetic aperture radar satellite aboard a US Falcon 9 rocket on 21 December. It is the third military satellite launched under South Korea's plan to acquire five spy satellites by 2025 to better monitor North Korean military activities. In addition, South Korea also aims to launch around 60 small satellites by 2030, enabling monitoring of the DPRK at 30-minute intervals for prompt detection of potential strikes. [Yonhap, EH6]
In 2023, Pyongyang successfully launched its first military satellite, the Malligyong-1, and has pledged to launch three additional spy satellites in 2024. However, North Korea’s sole satellite launch attempt in 2024 ended in failure on 27 May. [38north]
North Korea vows “toughest” strategy against the US
The enlarged eleventh plenary meeting of the Eighth Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, held in late December, reviewed the implementation of party and state policies for 2024 as well as the draft state budget for 2025. During his speech at the plenary session, Kim Jong Un announced that North Korea would adopt the "toughest" strategy to counter the US. He further claimed that the alliance between the US, Japan and South Korea had evolved into a “nuclear military bloc for aggression.” [KCNA]
State TV’s report on the plenary meeting included still-frame images of Kim Jong Un inspecting the construction of a frigate or destroyer, the largest surface combatant North Korea has ever built, at an undisclosed date, highlighting the country’s continued arms buildup.
Image: KCTV
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Political turmoil in South Korea
President Yoon Suk Yeol has remained at his fortified official residence since the South Korean parliament impeached and suspended him on 14 December over his brief imposition of martial law. Meanwhile, investigators have faced challenges in executing a warrant for his arrest on charges of insurrection. On 27 December, prosecutors indicted former defence minister Kim Yong-hyun, who was arrested earlier in December, on insurrection charges over his role in the martial law declaration. [Yonhap, BBC, EH19, Yonhap]
Amid the ongoing domestic turmoil, acting president Choi Sang-mok urged the stable management of state affairs, particularly in diplomacy, security and defence. [Yonhap]
US Admiral: Russia to supply fighter jets to North Korea
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, stated at the Reagan National Defense Forum that Moscow had agreed to supply MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets to North Korea. Additionally, Pyongyang is likely seeking Russian technologies to advance its ballistic missiles, submarines and air defence systems. [Aviation Week, EurAsian Times]
Image credit: 'Taiwan Presidential Office' Flickr account, Philippine Coast Guard 'X' account.
KEY UPDATES
China silently conducts large-scale exercises near Taiwan
From 9 to 13 December, China carried out large-scale military exercises near Taiwan, involving military aircraft and approximately 90 warships and coast guard vessels. These drills reportedly simulated attacks on foreign ships and practised blockading sea routes. According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, the naval deployment—stretching from the southern Japanese islands to the South China Sea—was the largest since the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. Unusually, Chinese media remained silent on the exercises. On 13 December, a PLA spokesperson stated that the PLA “will not be absent and will not be soft in its fight against independence and for reunification.” [PTS, DW, CCTV, Reuters]
In December, Taiwan's military reported detecting Chinese naval vessels around its main island 229 times. It also tracked 397 Chinese military aircraft, 204 of which crossed the Strait Median Line. [DPP, Taiwanese MND]
A Taiwan Coast Guard ship monitors a China Coast Guard ship in waters east of Taiwan on 12 December. Image: CNA
China conducts naval blockade exercise in Miyako Strait
In December, the Chinese navy and the China Coast Guard (CCG) jointly conducted activities resembling a naval blockade in the Miyako Strait. Additionally, four CCG vessels, all equipped with 76 mm naval guns, were deployed to areas near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. According to multiple sources close to the Japanese government, this marks the first confirmed instance of such activities, suggesting that China may be contemplating an expanded naval blockade zone in the event of a Taiwan contingency. [Yomiuri Shimbun]
China builds new combat platforms, suicide drones
In mid-December, videos and images of two types of stealth combat aircraft, developed by aircraft design institutes in Shenyang and Chengdu, respectively, surfaced online. Initial analysis indicated that these next-generation combat aircraft could feature a high combat radius, supersonic cruising speed, reduced radar signatures and a substantial weapon payload. [twz, twz]
On 27 December, China launched its first Type 076 amphibious assault ship in Shanghai. The vessel is reportedly equipped with an electromagnetic catapult and arresting gear, enabling the operation of fixed-wing aircraft. [Xinhua, Naval News]
Additionally, a major Chinese arms exporter, Poly Technologies, revealed to military news portal Defence Blog that Chinese manufacturers represented by the company were handling domestic orders for nearly a million lightweight suicide drones, slated for delivery by 2026. [Defence Blog]
Xi Jinping’s New Year address
In his New Year address, Chinese leader Xi Jinping acknowledged the challenges facing China’s economy but maintained that “changes unseen in a century” — referring to the rise of the east and the decline of the west — are accelerating globally. On Taiwan, Xi stated that “Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one and the same family,” asserting that “no one can ever stop China's reunification.” [Chinese MFA, Xinhua, WP]
US assessment of PLA capabilities
The annual report, the Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China 2024, released in late December by the US Department of Defense, highlighted that:
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China already has over 600 operational nuclear warheads, and will likely possess more than 1,000 operational warheads by 2030. China is fielding new types of hypersonic missiles, and is probably seeking lower-yield nuclear warhead capabilities.
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China continues to reorganise its defence, science and commercial industries to ensure PLA access to the resources, technologies and expertise required to militarily surpass the US.
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The corruption within the PLA may have shaken Beijing’s confidence in high-ranking PLA officials.
Philippines conducts maritime drills with Japan and US
On 6 December, the Philippines held maritime drills with Japan and the US within its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. The exercises came two days after the Philippines accused Chinese Coast Guard vessels of ramming one of its boats during a resupply mission to fishermen at Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island. The drills involved a US Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft, a Philippine Navy ship and Japan's Murasame-class destroyer JS Samidare. [Reuters, EH19]
Image credits: Kremlin official website, 'President Of Ukraine' Flickr account, and 'Joe Biden' Flickr account.
KEY UPDATES
War in Ukraine - Battlefield update:
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8 December: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed for the first time the number of Ukrainian casualties with 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 370,000 wounded. [Zelenskyy Telegram]
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13 & 25 December: Russia conducted two major air strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, involving nearly 500 drones and missiles in total. As a result of the damage caused by the attacks, power hours had to be further reduced across the country. [Reuters, BBC]
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17 December: Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian radiation, chemical and biological defence forces, was assassinated in Moscow. Kirillov, against whom Ukraine levelled criminal charges a day earlier, was killed outside his apartment by an explosive hidden in a scooter.[AP]
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23 December: President Zelenskyy said that the number of killed and wounded North Korean soldiers in Russia's Kursk Region has exceeded 3,000. [Zelenskyy Telegram]
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25 December: A civilian Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane was allegedly downed by Russian air defences near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. Flight J2-8243 was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, where Russian air defence systems were active against Ukrainian drone strikes. Video evidence and survivor accounts suggest the plane may have been hit by surface-to-air missiles, with shrapnel-like damage visible on the fuselage. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev demanded an apology and accountability from Russia. Vladimir Putin expressed regret but denied responsibility. An investigation is ongoing. [Reuters, AZTV, Kremlin]
Russia’s Defence Ministry prepares for military conflict with NATO
On 16 December, at the Expanded Meeting of Russia’s Defence Ministry Board, Defence Minister Andrei Belousov announced that preparing for a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe within the next decade is a top priority for the ministry. Belousov also highlighted two additional strategic pillars shaping the ministry’s efforts: ongoing combat operations in Ukraine and advancing technological capabilities. [Kommersant, Russian MOD, Kremlin]
Russia and Belarus sign security guarantees
On 6 December, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed a security treaty, affirming mutual defence obligations and the protection of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Putin emphasised that all means, including Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus, may be used for defence as outlined in Russia's updated nuclear doctrine.
Relatedly, Russian President Putin approved Lukashenko's request to deploy conventionally armed Oreshnik missile systems in Belarus by late 2025. Lukashenko stated that the system is expected to provide a deterrent effect with targets selected by Belarus and operational support from Russia. [Tass, DW, President of Belarus, Belta]
NATO and Biden boost Ukraine aid ahead of Trump inauguration
In December 2024, NATO intensified efforts to strengthen Kyiv’s position ahead of potential ceasefire negotiations and the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump in January. On 30 December, the Biden administration announced a nearly 2.5 billion USD military aid package for Ukraine, comprising 1.25 billion USD from Pentagon stockpiles for immediate delivery and 1.22 billion USD under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) for long-term production. This formed part of a broader push to bolster Ukraine’s defences before President Biden leaves office, alongside additional aid packages of 725 million USD on 2 December, 988 million USD on 7 December, and 500 million USD on 13 December. Relatedly, on 17 December, NATO formally took over the coordination of Western military aid, aiming to ensure continuity amid concerns about plummeting US support under the incoming Trump administration. [White House, US DoD, Reuters, Secretary Blinken, US DoD, US DoD]
Baltic Sea cable sabotage
Finnish police have seized the Cook Islands-registered oil tanker Eagle S on suspicion that the vessel damaged an electricity cable and four other telecom cables in the Baltic Sea. The Eagle S reportedly sabotaged the cables by dragging its anchor across the seabed. Finland's customs service suspects the tanker is part of a "shadow fleet" circumventing sanctions and has impounded the ship. The incident, considered part of a wider hybrid warfare tactic, has prompted NATO to deploy 10 ships near the energy and data cables in the Baltic Sea to deter further sabotage. The NATO vessels are expected to remain in position until April. [Reuters, Yle, Yle, EH19]
DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
European NATO members eye new defence spending target
European NATO members are reportedly considering raising the alliance’s defence spending target to 3% of GDP by 2030. Presently, 23 member nations meet the existing 2% benchmark, though some, including Spain and Italy, fall short. According to the Financial Times, the members are currently discussing a gradual increase from 2% to 2.5% of GDP before achieving the final goal of 3%. The new target is expected to be finalised during NATO’s summit in the Hague next summer. [FT]
Ukraine to convene contact group to prepare for peace talks
On 9 December, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed plans to convene a contact group meeting with key European partners, including Germany, France, Poland and the UK, to develop a unified position on a potential resolution of the Ukraine war. On 10 December, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that peace negotiations could begin “in winter of this year”, with Poland playing an active role as it assumes the EU Council presidency in January 2025. [President of Ukraine, Kyiv Independent, Military.com]
Slovakia objects to Russian gas transit shutdown
On 1 January, Russian gas pipelines through Ukraine ceased to operate due to Ukraine’s refusal to renew a transit agreement with Gazprom, Russia's state energy provider. This marked the end of decades-long Russian energy dominance in Europe, despite objections from Slovakia and Hungary. [Reuters]
On 22 December, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico made a surprise visit to Moscow. Fico later announced he had secured Slovakia's gas supply during the visit, without providing more details. However, in a New Year’s message on Facebook, Fico stated that his party would discuss retaliatory measures, including cutting electricity supplies to Ukraine, reducing aid to Ukrainian refugees and demanding either the resumption of gas transits or compensation for Slovakia's losses due to disrupted gas flows. [Facebook, Reuters, Facebook]
