All Contributions
January 2025
AI and Nuclear Strategy Under Trump 2.0: What to Expect by Alice Saltini
The global debate on AI in military systems, especially nuclear decision-making, is accelerating. A Biden-Xi joint declaration and a similar US-UK-France statement stress the need for human control. As Trump takes office, the trajectory of this emerging dialogue on AI and nuclear decision-making remains uncertain.
January 2025
The Credibility Challenge: US Extended Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific by Joseph Rodgers
This article examines the US's extended deterrence strategy in the Indo-Pacific amidst growing nuclear threats from China and North Korea. It highlights the concerns of allies like Japan and South Korea over US commitments, explores regional defence initiatives like AUKUS and addresses the implications of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan’s security.
January 2025
North Korea's Nuclear Signalling: Context and Implications by Rachel Minyoung Lee
To understand North Korea’s intentions regarding its nuclear programme, it is essential to examine its nuclear rhetoric, which reflects Pyongyang’s foreign policy calculus and its implications for regional and global security. This article begins with the collapse of the 2019 US-North Korea summit in Hanoi, a pivotal moment for North Korea’s nuclear and foreign policy. It argues that North Korea’s nuclear signalling has grown increasingly hardline since the summit, aligning with its foreign policy reorientation and presenting greater proliferation challenges amid the war in Ukraine and shifts in the global order.
January 2025
Inflection Points: The Future of the North Korea Sanctions Regime by Ian J Stewart
The sanctions regime on North Korea is at an inflection point. The UN sanctions monitoring framework has been dismantled in parallel to North Korea beginning to supply munitions, missiles and troops to Russia for use in the conflict in Ukraine. This comes in addition to the re-establishment of North Korean international trade after the COVID 19 pandemic. It precedes the inauguration of President Trump for his second term. Collectively, these factors mark a new epoch for sanctions on North Korea.
December 2024
Between Deterrence and Dialogue: Belarus's Dual-Track Strategy Amid Border Tensions with Ukraine by Yauheni Preiherman
Over the summer of 2024, international media focused on military escalation risks along the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, highlighting troop build-ups and reconnaissance activities. However, de-escalation efforts by Minsk and Kyiv received little attention, particularly Belarus' nuanced approach to security policy, blending military deterrence with diplomacy, which could hold strategic implications for European security.
December 2024
A Tragedy of Collateral Damage? The Impact of Sanctions on Inter-Korean Relations by Eunju Choi and Chung-in Moon
This article analyses the intensifying nature of international sanctions on North Korea and traces their impact on inter-Korean relations. It also examines how the new DPRK-Russian connection in the wake of the Ukraine War is affecting the sanction regime on North Korea and inter-Korean relations. This article is part of a sanctions series.
November 2024
US Sanctions on North Korea by Troy Stangarone
The article examines the extensive US sanctions on North Korea, imposed for issues like nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, human rights abuses and illicit activities. Rooted in legislation and executive orders, these sanctions are complex, spanning decades and including both national and UN-aligned measures, with limited paths for relief.
September 2024
UN Security Council Sanctions on the DPRK by Thomas J. Biersteker
UN sanctions on the DPRK were first imposed in 2006 following its nuclear test and missile launches. Over time, these sanctions expanded in scope, targeting North Korea’s economy and leadership. Despite increased restrictions, division among the UN Security Council members has weakened the sanction regime, raising concerns about effectiveness and humanitarian impact.
August 2024
The Impact of Sanctions on Humanitarian Assistance to the DPRK by Hazel Smith
The paper investigates the broader impacts of UN sanctions on North Korea. It first clarifies that sanctions do not affect the volume of humanitarian aid. It then details how sanctions have hindered aid delivery and worsened North Korea's food crisis, suggesting that lifting sanctions could prevent further deaths from malnutrition-related diseases and starvation.
June 2024
Overview of the DPRK Sanctions Regime: China by Qiyang Niu
The article discusses China's implementation of UNSC sanctions against the DPRK, highlighting its use of executive measures, participation in specialised UN organs and national legislation. It reviews the efficiency of China’s sanction procedures, the role of key government agencies and the complexities in enforcing sanctions, especially concerning dual-use items and geopolitical influences.
